IQV
IQVIA Holdings Inc.$178.50
Hold
Target $220.52
Report: Mar 07, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Diagnostics & Research • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$178.50+23.5%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$169.63
(5% below current)
Fair Value
$220.52
(24% above current)
Stop Loss
$134.65
(25% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$247.05
52 Week Low$134.65
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.05M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin33.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin21.4%
LTM EBIT Margin14.4%
LTM Operating Margin13.4%
LTM ROA4.7%
LTM ROE22.3%
LTM ROIC17.1%
LTM ROCE11.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$28.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$42.9B
Shares Outstanding169.80M
Total Debt (MM)$15.95B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.98B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$13.97B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA4.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth5.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR4.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR6.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR10.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$233.80
LTM EV/Revenue2.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.9x
LTM EV/EBIT18.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.3x
LTM P/E21.3x
LTM EV/FCF20.2x
LTM P/FCF13.6x
LTM P/TB3.5x
LTM P/B4.5x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $178.5 versus fair value $220.52 (23.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Successful deployment of 150+ AI agents across core use cases. Bear case centers on Moat erosion from technological disruption. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Long-Term (3+ Years) horizon.
Bull Case
Record $32.7 billion R&D Solutions backlog provides high revenue visibility; AI integration via 150+ agents is expected to drive long-term margin expansion; 100% free cash flow conversion supports aggressive share repurchases ($5.5 billion net over 5 years).
Bear Case
Gross and operating margins are compressing due to unfavorable mix shifts; net leverage remains high at 4.0x EBITDA; incremental returns on invested capital are currently negative (-1.5%), suggesting value-destructive reinvestment.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Successful deployment of 150+ AI agents across core use cases. This addresses market concerns about AI disruption by proving AI is a margin-...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Stabilization of gross margins above 34%. This would validate management's claim that the current compression is a temporary mix-shift issue...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
IQVIA is at a critical juncture following a 10.6% price drop after its Q4 2025 earnings miss, making the current valuation a key test of its...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion from technological disruption. Generative AI could potentially automate core data-analytics and consulting services, reducing t...
Concern: High
Financial risk from high leverage. With $15.9 billion in debt and net leverage at 4.0x, rising interest rates could significantly impair ear...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate for a mature compounder. The board is highly independent and features significant capital allocation expertise, incl...
Recent Activity
2026-02-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.65%IQVIA reports Q4 2025 revenue of $4.364 billion, up 10.3% year-over-year
2025-07-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+17.88%IQVIA reports Q2 2025 revenue of $4.017 billion, up 5.3% year-over-year
2024-02-14SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+13.10%Vanguard Group reports 11.55% beneficial ownership of IQVIA Holdings Inc. common stock
2023-11-02SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.81%IQVIA reports Q3 2023 revenue of $3.736 billion, up 4.9% year-over-year
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$157
Bear
$33
Base
$256
Bull
$179