IRM
Iron Mountain Incorporated$107.30
Sell
Target $79.08
Report: Mar 11, 2026Real Estate • REIT - Specialty • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$107.30-26.3%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$79.08
(26% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$115.24
52 Week Low$72.33
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.89M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin55.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin30.3%
LTM EBIT Margin15.0%
LTM Operating Margin16.9%
LTM ROA0.7%
LTM ROE-17.4%
LTM ROIC3.6%
LTM ROCE6.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$30.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$48.8B
Shares Outstanding295.97M
Total Debt (MM)$18.73B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$158.53M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$18.57B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA8.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth12.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR10.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR4.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-36.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$128.50
LTM EV/Revenue7.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit12.8x
LTM EV/EBIT47.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA23.3x
LTM P/E209.0x
LTM EV/FCF-53.1x
LTM P/FCF-32.9x
LTM P/TB2.1x
LTM P/B-30.8x
Dividend Yield3.2%
Payout Ratio656.9%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $107.3 versus fair value $79.08 (-26.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Refinancing Risk and Interest Expense Surge Iron Mountain faces a front-loaded maturity schedule with 58% of its 18.7 billion USD debt due by 2030. Bear case centers on Excessive Financial Leverage With a net debt/EBITDA of 8.9x and negative equity, the company has no room for operational error. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The bull case rests on the 400 MW data center pipeline scheduled to energize over the next 24 months and the 12.2% revenue growth driven by AI-related demand. Proponents point to the 329% five-year cumulative TSR and the 714 million USD Treasury contract as evidence of successful strategic execution.
Bear Case
The bear case focuses on the 8.9x net debt/EBITDA leverage and the negative 0.9% incremental ROIC, suggesting that growth is being bought at a loss. Furthermore, insiders have sold 115.3 million USD in stock over the last year, signaling a lack of confidence in the current valuation.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Refinancing Risk and Interest Expense Surge Iron Mountain faces a front-loaded maturity schedule with 58% of its 18.7 billion USD debt due b...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Data Center Energization Milestones The successful energization of 250 MW over the next 18 months is the primary bull catalyst. Failure to m...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Iron Mountain is at a critical juncture as its stock trades near all-time highs while its balance sheet reaches maximum leverage and insider...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Excessive Financial Leverage With a net debt/EBITDA of 8.9x and negative equity, the company has no room for operational error. A minor decl...
Concern: High
Capital Reinvestment Inefficiency The company is reinvesting 179.3% of its operating cash flow into projects that are currently yielding an...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed. While the board is highly qualified-featuring Audit Chair Walter Rakowich, the former CEO of Prologis-the...
Recent Activity
2026-02-12SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.77%Iron Mountain reports record Q4 and full year 2025 results with strong revenue and profit growth
2025-11-13SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.85%Iron Mountain incurs $200 million in incremental term loans under its credit agreement.
2025-08-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.77%Iron Mountain reports record Q2 2025 results with strong revenue and profit growth
2025-02-13SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.28%Iron Mountain reports record Q4 and full year 2024 results with 11.4% revenue growth and increases dividend by 10%.
2024-11-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.98%Iron Mountain reports Q3 2024 results with record revenue, EBITDA, and AFFO.
Valuation Table
8.1/10Decision Grade