IT
Gartner, Inc.$158.58
Buy
Target $261.53
Report: Feb 26, 2026Technology • Information Technology Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$158.58+64.9%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$158.58
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$261.53
(65% above current)
Stop Loss
$139.18
(12% below current)
Position Size
Full
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$451.73
52 Week Low$139.18
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.59M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin68.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin20.9%
LTM EBIT Margin16.8%
LTM Operating Margin15.8%
LTM ROA9.1%
LTM ROE74.7%
LTM ROIC51.7%
LTM ROCE25.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$11.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$12.7B
Shares Outstanding72.02M
Total Debt (MM)$3.25B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.72B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.53B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth3.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR5.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-1.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-1.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$206.30
LTM EV/Revenue2.0x
LTM EV/Gross Profit2.9x
LTM EV/EBIT11.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA9.3x
LTM P/E15.3x
LTM EV/FCF10.8x
LTM P/FCF9.5x
LTM P/TB2.2x
LTM P/B34.9x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $158.58 versus fair value $261.53 (64.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Acceleration of Contract Value (CV) growth driven by AskGartner adoption. Bear case centers on AI Commoditization: The risk that large language models (LLMs) can synthesize public information to provide research that substitutes for Gartner's proprietary insights, leading to lower renewal rates. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Full sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
Gartner's core Insights segment is a 'mission-critical' service with 85% renewal rates and 77% contribution margins that are insulated from macro shocks. The 'Cannibal' strategy is highly effective, having reduced the share count by 18.5% while maintaining a 34.5% ROIC. AI is a tailwind, not a threat, as AskGartner users show higher renewal rates and the company has already answered 500,000+ AI queries for clients.
Bear Case
AI could commoditize proprietary research, allowing low-cost or open-source alternatives to erode Gartner's pricing power. The Conferences segment is cyclical and vulnerable to corporate travel budget cuts. High leverage (1016% debt-to-equity) and negative tangible book value ($38.30 per share) provide no valuation floor if cash flows falter.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Acceleration of Contract Value (CV) growth driven by AskGartner adoption. Management noted that AskGartner users have 'substantially higher'...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Divestiture of the Digital Markets business. The company has entered into a definitive agreement to sell this unit, which was the source of...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Gartner is highly relevant at this moment because it is trading at a multi-year valuation trough (9.5x P/FCF) despite record high ROIC (51.7...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
AI Commoditization: The risk that large language models (LLMs) can synthesize public information to provide research that substitutes for Ga...
Concern: Low
Financial Leverage: Aggressive buybacks have pushed debt-to-equity to 1016% and created a negative tangible book value of $38.30 per share.
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is strong, supported by a board with elite financial pedigree. Audit Chair Richard Bressler (iHeartMedia CFO) and Le...
Recent Activity
2026-02-03SEC Filing (8-K)
-20.87%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document EXHIBIT 99.1 Gartner Press Release Gartner Reports Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results Contract Value $5.2 billion, +1% Yo Y FX Neutral FOURTH QUARTER 2025 HIGHLIGHTS • Revenues: $1.8...
2026-01-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.88%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document EXHIBIT 99.1 Gartner Press Release Gartner Appoints Professor Daniela Rus and Edward Bousa to Board of Directors STAMFORD, Conn., January 29, 2026 — Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) today announced...
2025-11-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.62%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document EXHIBIT 99.1 Gartner Press Release Gartner Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Contract Value $5.0 billion, +3.0% Yo Y FX Neutral THIRD QUARTER 2025 HIGHLIGHTS • Revenues: $1.5...
2025-08-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-27.55%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document EXHIBIT 99.1 Gartner Press Release Gartner Reports Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Contract Value $5.0 billion, +4.9% Yo Y FX Neutral SECOND QUARTER 2025 HIGHLIGHTS • Revenues: $1.7...
2024-07-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.93%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document EXHIBIT 99.1 Gartner Press Release Gartner Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results Contract Value $4.9 billion, +7.4% Yo Y FX Neutral SECOND QUARTER 2024 HIGHLIGHTS • Revenues: $1.6...
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$131
Bear
$208
Base
$265
Bull
$159