J
Jacobs Solutions Inc.$131.80
Sell
Target $100.51
Report: Feb 26, 2026Technology • Software - Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$131.80-23.7%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$100.51
(24% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$168.44
52 Week Low$105.18
Avg. 3 Month Volume923K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin24.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin8.5%
LTM EBIT Margin6.5%
LTM Operating Margin7.2%
LTM ROA3.8%
LTM ROE11.7%
LTM ROIC19.2%
LTM ROCE10.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$14.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$16.4B
Shares Outstanding117.45M
Total Debt (MM)$2.96B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.55B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.41B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-13.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-6.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-6.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-10.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$155.50
LTM EV/Revenue1.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.4x
LTM EV/EBIT20.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA15.6x
LTM P/E34.5x
LTM EV/FCF18.7x
LTM P/FCF17.1x
LTM P/TB2.4x
LTM P/B4.3x
Dividend Yield1.0%
Payout Ratio35.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $131.8 versus fair value $100.51 (-23.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Full integration of the remaining PA Consulting stake and realization of the $26.3B backlog. Bear case centers on Moat erosion risk. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Record $26.3B backlog (+21% YoY) provides multi-year revenue visibility; AI-driven data center demand is expanding the pipeline 5x YoY; PA Consulting integration targets 50-80 basis points of annual EBITDA margin expansion.
Bear Case
Net margins have collapsed to 2.4% due to non-recurring legal and tax headwinds; tangible book value is deeply negative at -$15.7 per share; incremental ROIC of -220 basis points suggests recent capital deployment is value-destructive.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Full integration of the remaining PA Consulting stake and realization of the $26.3B backlog. This addresses market concerns about the sustai...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Jacobs is leveraging its deep technical expertise to move up the value chain into digital twins and AI advisory, supported by a record $26.3...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Jacobs is currently relevant due to the recent completion of its structural transformation and the market's ongoing debate over the valuatio...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion risk. The biggest threat is technological disruption or a new low-cost competitor that permanently impairs the company's pricin...
Concern: Medium
The bear case is defined by a scenario of moat erosion and declining profitability. It assumes revenue growth slows to 2% and margins compre...
Concern: Medium
The governance structure is strong, but the company faces a critical juncture. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: The PA C...
Recent Activity
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.84%Jacobs Solutions holds 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders
2025-11-20SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.95%Jacobs appoints Diane Bryant to its Board of Directors
2025-05-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.65%Jacobs reports Q2 2025 results with strong backlog growth and capital returns
2024-11-14SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-5.79%Capital World Investors reports 0% ownership in Jacobs Solutions Inc.
2023-11-21SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.68%Jacobs Solutions Inc. reported fiscal fourth quarter and year 2023 earnings with double-digit revenue growth and announced spin-off of CMS and C&I businesses.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$79
Bear
$116
Base
$143
Bull
$132