JBHT
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.$232.11
Unclear
Target $232.29
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Integrated Freight & Logistics • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$232.11+0.1%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$178.68
(23% below current)
Fair Value
$232.29
(0% above current)
Stop Loss
$165.00
(29% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional (12-24 Months)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$236.00
52 Week Low$122.79
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.04M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin45.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin14.0%
LTM EBIT Margin7.2%
LTM Operating Margin7.2%
LTM ROA7.4%
LTM ROE16.3%
LTM ROIC11.5%
LTM ROCE13.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$20.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$21.5B
Shares Outstanding94.86M
Total Debt (MM)$1.47B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$17.28M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.45B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-0.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-6.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-6.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-12.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$198.82
LTM EV/Revenue1.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.9x
LTM EV/EBIT24.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.8x
LTM P/E33.5x
LTM EV/FCF19.5x
LTM P/FCF18.2x
LTM P/TB2.6x
LTM P/B5.6x
Dividend Yield0.6%
Payout Ratio21.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $232.11 versus fair value $232.29 (0.1% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Intermodal Margin Repair Management is targeting a 1 percentage point improvement in intermodal margins through cost, volume, and price levers. Bear case centers on Lower-for-Longer Freight Recession A structural oversupply of trucking capacity could prevent the expected 2026 pricing inflection, keeping intermodal yields at trough levels. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The $100 million cost-saving program is delivering ahead of schedule, with $25 million in savings realized in Q4 2025 alone. Furthermore, the Walmart container acquisition provides a massive, low-cost capacity moat for the next upcycle.
Bear Case
Intermodal pricing power is eroding as load volumes in the Transcontinental network fell 6% YoY in Q4 2025. Additionally, insiders have been aggressive sellers, offloading $9.4 million in stock as the price approached $230.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Intermodal Margin Repair Management is targeting a 1 percentage point improvement in intermodal margins through cost, volume, and price leve...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Dedicated Sales Pipeline Conversion J.B. Hunt has a record 40 new customer names in the Dedicated pipeline. Converting these into active fle...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
J.B. Hunt is relevant now because it has just completed its largest-ever share repurchase program ($923 million in 2025) and is entering 202...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Lower-for-Longer Freight Recession A structural oversupply of trucking capacity could prevent the expected 2026 pricing inflection, keeping...
Concern: Low
Balance Sheet Leverage at Trough Debt-to-Equity has risen to 1.22x as cash was redirected to buybacks. A deeper downturn could pressure the...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, anchored by Lead Independent Director James Robo, who delivered a 500% TSR during his tenure as CEO of NextEra Energy...
Recent Activity
2025-10-16SEC Filing (8-K)
+22.14%J.B. Hunt reports Q3 2025 GAAP revenues of $3.05 billion, net earnings of $170.8 million, and EPS of $1.76
2025-04-16SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.68%J.B. Hunt reports Q1 2025 GAAP revenues of $2.92 billion, net earnings of $117.7 million, and EPS of $1.17
2025-01-17SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.38%J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. reported Q4 2024 and full-year 2024 financial results showing revenue declines but improved operating income in Q4
2024-07-17SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.87%J.B. Hunt reports Q2 2024 GAAP revenues of $2.93 billion, net earnings of $135.9 million, and EPS of $1.32
2024-04-17SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.12%J.B. Hunt reports Q1 2024 GAAP revenues of $2.94 billion, net earnings of $127.5 million, and EPS of $1.22
Valuation Table
9.6/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$198
Bear
$303
Base
$367
Bull
$232