JBL
Jabil Inc.$249.28
Hold
Target $287.87
Report: Mar 11, 2026Technology • Hardware, Equipment & Parts • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$249.28+15.5%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$221.44
(11% below current)
Fair Value
$287.87
(15% above current)
Stop Loss
$215.00
(14% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$283.76
52 Week Low$108.66
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.19M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin8.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin6.0%
LTM EBIT Margin3.6%
LTM Operating Margin3.7%
LTM ROA3.8%
LTM ROE51.1%
LTM ROIC20.8%
LTM ROCE22.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$28.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$29.8B
Shares Outstanding107.00M
Total Debt (MM)$3.37B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.57B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.80B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth13.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-3.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-6.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-2.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$273.00
LTM EV/Revenue1.0x
LTM EV/Gross Profit10.7x
LTM EV/EBIT26.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA15.9x
LTM P/E39.9x
LTM EV/FCF21.9x
LTM P/FCF20.6x
LTM P/TB1.6x
LTM P/B20.9x
Dividend Yield0.1%
Payout Ratio4.9%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $249.28 versus fair value $287.87 (15.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Hanley Energy Integration and Power Distribution Ramp The closing of the Hanley acquisition in early 2026 adds critical power distribution services. Bear case centers on Tariff Escalation and Geopolitical Friction With significant manufacturing in China and a 'China+1' strategy in progress, new tariffs could disrupt the high-margin Intelligent Infrastructure supply chain, leading to the bear case scenario. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Transitional horizon.
Bull Case
AI infrastructure revenue is projected to grow 35% to 12.1 billion USD in FY26, driven by liquid-cooling and power-distribution wins. Aggressive share buybacks, totaling 5.1 billion USD over 20 quarters, provide significant EPS accretion regardless of top-line volatility.
Bear Case
Gross margins remain stuck at 8.9% despite the higher AI mix, suggesting input cost inflation is neutralizing pricing gains. Insiders have sold 142.6 million USD of stock in the last 12 months with zero discretionary purchases, signaling a lack of confidence in further valuation expansion.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Hanley Energy Integration and Power Distribution Ramp The closing of the Hanley acquisition in early 2026 adds critical power distribution s...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Gross Margin Inflection Above 9.0% A sustained move in gross margins toward the 9.5% target would prove the 'AI-mix' thesis and likely lead...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Jabil is at a critical juncture as it transitions from a diversified EMS provider to a concentrated AI infrastructure play, coinciding with...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Tariff Escalation and Geopolitical Friction With significant manufacturing in China and a 'China+1' strategy in progress, new tariffs could...
Concern: Medium
Lower-for-Longer Cyclical Downturn in Regulated Industries A prolonged slump in automotive and renewable energy could offset AI gains, preve...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate but lacks high-conviction alignment. The governance outcome tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: Dastoor continues the 'Can...
Recent Activity
2025-12-12SEC Filing (DEFA14A)
-5.07%Excerpt: DEFA14A UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D. C. 20549 SCHEDULE 14A (Rule 14a-101) INFORMATION REQUIRED IN PROXY STATEMENT SCHEDULE 14A INFORMATION Proxy Statement Pursuant to Section 14(a) of the...
2025-11-13SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-5.66%Beneficial ownership update (SC 13G/A).
2025-09-25SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.69%Jabil reports Q4 FY25 results and provides strong FY26 outlook.
2025-06-17SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.89%Jabil reports Q3 FY25 results with $7.8B revenue and raises FY25 outlook.
2024-12-18SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.26%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 Jabil Posts Strong First Quarter Results Raises Fiscal 2025 Outlook ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – December 18, 2024 – Today, Jabil Inc. (NYSE: JBL), reported preliminary, unaudited financial results for...
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade