JCI
Johnson Controls International plc$144.71
Sell
Target $100.04
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Construction • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$144.71-30.9%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$100.04
(31% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$146.49
52 Week Low$68.03
Avg. 3 Month Volume5.17M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin36.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin20.3%
LTM EBIT Margin16.8%
LTM Operating Margin10.7%
LTM ROA8.4%
LTM ROE23.5%
LTM ROIC22.4%
LTM ROCE13.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$80.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$89.3B
Shares Outstanding612.00M
Total Debt (MM)$9.71B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$552.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$9.15B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth7.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-2.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR29.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR42.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$136.75
LTM EV/Revenue3.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit10.2x
LTM EV/EBIT22.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA18.3x
LTM P/E23.6x
LTM EV/FCF66.9x
LTM P/FCF60.0x
LTM P/TB4.5x
LTM P/B6.1x
Dividend Yield1.2%
Payout Ratio29.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $144.71 versus fair value $100.04 (-30.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Completion of the $400M Restructuring Program This program is intended to remove stranded costs following the R&LC divestiture. Bear case centers on Lower-for-Longer Cyclical Downturn A slowdown in global non-residential construction would prevent the conversion of the $18B backlog, leading to significant revenue misses and deleveraging. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The Danaher-pedigree CEO successfully implements a lean operating system that closes the 590-bp margin gap with peers, while AI-driven data center demand sustains a multi-year 'super-cycle' for high-capacity chillers.
Bear Case
Aggressive debt-financed buybacks at peak multiples impair the balance sheet just as non-residential construction cycles turn, while PFAS litigation settlements exceed the $750M already reserved, creating a liquidity crunch.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Completion of the $400M Restructuring Program This program is intended to remove stranded costs following the R&LC divestiture. Failure to s...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
PFAS Litigation Bellwether Trials Trials for personal injury claims related to kidney cancer are scheduled for late 2025 and 2026. Adverse r...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Johnson Controls is at a critical juncture as it completes its transition to a pure-play commercial entity while trading at all-time highs,...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-Longer Cyclical Downturn A slowdown in global non-residential construction would prevent the conversion of the $18B backlog, leadi...
Concern: Medium
Balance Sheet Fragility The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 76.4% leaves little room for error. A breach of the $3.5B minimum equity coven...
Concern: Medium
The governance structure is currently in a 'Compromise' phase. The board has granted seats and leadership changes to satisfy Elliott Managem...
Recent Activity
2025-11-05SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.84%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Johnson Controls Reports Q4 and FY25 Results; Initiates FY26 Guidance ______________________________________________________________________________________ ▪ Q4 sales...
2025-07-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.42%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Johnson Controls Reports Strong Q3 Results; Raises FY25 Guidance ______________________________________________________________________________________ ▪ Q3 sales increased 3%...
2025-04-03Market Movement
-6.79%Market/Sector Move -6.79%
2025-02-05SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.28%Johnson Controls issued press release announcing Q1 2025 results and CEO succession.
2024-11-06SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.83%Johnson Controls reported Q4 and FY24 results with strong sales growth and margin expansion, initiating FY25 guidance.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$79
Base
$102
Bull
$145