JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.$288.73
Unclear
Target $276.31
Report: Mar 13, 2026Financial Services • Banks - Diversified • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$288.73-4.3%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$212.55
(26% below current)
Fair Value
$276.31
(4% below current)
Stop Loss
$193.62
(33% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$337.25
52 Week Low$202.16
Avg. 3 Month Volume11.17M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin43.9%
LTM EBIT Margin39.0%
LTM Operating Margin47.6%
LTM ROA1.2%
LTM ROE15.6%
LTM ROIC1.4%
LTM ROCE1.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$793.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$1,392.4B
Shares Outstanding2.74B
Total Debt (MM)$942.38B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$343.34B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$599.04B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA7.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth2.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR12.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR15.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR18.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$336.10
LTM EV/Revenue7.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.6x
LTM EV/EBIT19.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA17.4x
LTM P/E14.2x
LTM EV/FCF-9.4x
LTM P/FCF-5.4x
LTM P/TB0.2x
LTM P/B2.2x
Dividend Yield2.0%
Payout Ratio28.9%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $288.73 versus fair value $276.31 (-4.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Apple Card Integration and Tech Rebuild Management is rebuilding the Apple Card's iOS-integrated tech stack over the next two years. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion from Fintech and Private Credit Technological disruption or a shift in corporate lending to private credit could permanently impair JPM's pricing power and return on capital. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
1. Moat expansion through AI-driven efficiency gains and blockchain integration (Connexus) could push ROTCE beyond historical 20% levels. 2. Fixed-asset repricing as the yield curve un-inverts could drive double-digit earnings growth. 3. Dominant market share gains in consumer banking, evidenced by 1.7 million net new checking accounts in FY 2025.
Bear Case
1. Severe deterioration in cash conversion, with operating cash flow plunging 252% to negative $147.8 billion. 2. Potential $10 billion private credit markdown risk if the AI supercycle stalls. 3. Rising leverage, with Debt/Equity increasing to 260% to fund buybacks at all-time high prices.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Apple Card Integration and Tech Rebuild Management is rebuilding the Apple Card's iOS-integrated tech stack over the next two years. Success...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Yield Curve Normalization A shift from an inverted to a flat or upward-sloping yield curve would allow JPM to capture double-digit earnings...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
JPMorgan is relevant for analysis now due to the convergence of a looming CEO transition, the massive RWA impact of the Apple Card acquisiti...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion from Fintech and Private Credit Technological disruption or a shift in corporate lending to private credit could permanently im...
Concern: Low
Regulatory RWA and Capital Pressures Basel III Endgame or higher G-SIB requirements could force JPM to hold more capital, reducing its abili...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is strong but transitioning. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: Dimon stays for 4 years, executing...
Recent Activity
2025-04-04Market Movement
-8.05%Market/Sector Move -8.05%
2024-11-06SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+11.54%JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported 2.1% ownership in Agriculture & Natural Solutions Acquisition Corporation as of October 31, 2024.
2024-09-10Analyst Target
-5.19%Firm: Barclays Analyst: Jason Goldberg Price Target: $217.00 Price When Posted: $204.00 Implied Upside: +6.4%
2024-04-12SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.47%JPMorgan Chase reports Q1 2024 net income of $13.4 billion ($4.44 per share), excluding a $725 million FDIC special assessment increase
2023-04-14SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.55%JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported Q1 2023 financial results with $12.6B net income and 23% ROTCE.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$194
Bear
$344
Base
$450
Bull
$289