KEY
KeyCorp$19.76
Sell
Target $14.19
Report: Mar 11, 2026Financial Services • Banks - Regional • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$19.76-28.2%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$14.19
(28% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$23.35
52 Week Low$12.73
Avg. 3 Month Volume16.43M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin31.2%
LTM EBIT Margin30.9%
LTM Operating Margin32.9%
LTM ROA0.9%
LTM ROE8.5%
LTM ROIC1.1%
LTM ROCE1.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$21.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$31.6B
Shares Outstanding1.10B
Total Debt (MM)$11.00B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.29B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$9.71B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA4.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth65.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR1.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-4.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-7.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$22.88
LTM EV/Revenue4.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.5x
LTM EV/EBIT14.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA14.5x
LTM P/E13.0x
LTM EV/FCF15.0x
LTM P/FCF10.4x
LTM P/TB0.1x
LTM P/B1.1x
Dividend Yield4.1%
Payout Ratio53.6%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $19.76 versus fair value $14.19 (-28.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Lapse of the $1.9 billion securities repositioning gain from the trailing 12-month financials. Bear case centers on Lower-for-longer interest rate environment compressing NIM. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
NIM expansion to 3.25% by 2027 driven by fixed-rate asset repricing; $1.2 billion in planned 2026 buybacks providing EPS accretion; successful scaling of fee-based businesses like investment banking and wealth management.
Bear Case
Normalization of revenue as one-time repositioning gains fade; persistent high SG&A at 56.8% of revenue; value-destructive reinvestment evidenced by a 0.9% ROIC and -24.5% incremental ROIC.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Lapse of the $1.9 billion securities repositioning gain from the trailing 12-month financials. This will expose the underlying organic growt...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Critical
Potential failure to reach the 3.0% NIM target by Q4 2026. Management has staked its credibility on this target; any compression in deposit...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
KeyCorp is relevant now because it is trading at a 52-week high ($19.76) just as the non-recurring tailwinds of its 2025 turnaround are begi...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-longer interest rate environment compressing NIM. If interest rates fall faster than deposit costs can be repriced, the bank's pri...
Concern: Medium
Credit quality deterioration in the C&I portfolio. The strategic shift toward commercial lending increases exposure to middle-market default...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is currently in a 'Compromise' phase. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: Management executes the 15% RoTCE pla...
Recent Activity
2025-10-16SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.36%KeyCorp reports Q3 2025 net income of $454M with 17% revenue growth
2024-01-19SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.61%KeyCorp reports Q4 2023 net income of $30M with $209M in special charges
2023-11-02Press Release
+8.28%Albany Black Chamber Of Commerce Awarded $200,000 Grant From Keybank Foundation
2023-10-20SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.34%KeyCorp reports Q3 2023 net income of $266 million, or $0.29 per diluted share, with strong capital position and balance sheet optimization.
2023-05-13SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.67%KeyCorp shareholders approve Amended and Restated 2019 Equity Compensation Plan
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$149
Bear
$13
Base
$17
Bull
$20