KHC
The Kraft Heinz Company$23.66
Sell
Target $18.33
Report: Mar 11, 2026Consumer Defensive • Packaged Foods • Turnaround CandidateSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$23.66-22.5%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$18.33
(23% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$31.15
52 Week Low$21.04
Avg. 3 Month Volume16.71M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin33.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin-14.1%
LTM EBIT Margin-18.0%
LTM Operating Margin-18.7%
LTM ROA-7.0%
LTM ROE-13.4%
LTM ROIC-13.8%
LTM ROCE-5.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$26.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$45.2B
Shares Outstanding1.18B
Total Debt (MM)$21.22B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.62B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$18.60B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-5.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-3.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-2.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$24.38
LTM EV/Revenue1.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.4x
LTM EV/EBIT-10.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA-12.8x
LTM P/E-4.6x
LTM EV/FCF12.4x
LTM P/FCF7.3x
LTM P/TB1.2x
LTM P/B0.6x
Dividend Yield7.1%
Payout Ratio-32.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $23.66 versus fair value $18.33 (-22.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is partial. Debate: Bull case depends on Failure to achieve share gains in Heinz/Philadelphia by Q4 2026. Bear case centers on Existential liquidity and solvency risk. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
New CEO Steve Cahillane successfully replicates his Kellanova turnaround, using the $600 million investment to drive 1% share gains in Heinz and Philadelphia; Emerging Markets continue 13% organic growth to offset North American weakness.
Bear Case
The $600 million brand spend fails to reverse the 4.1% volume-mix decline, leading to a covenant breach as net leverage remains at 5.0x; GLP-1 adoption and private-label unit share gains (23%) permanently impair the U.S. grocery portfolio.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Failure to achieve share gains in Heinz/Philadelphia by Q4 2026. This would invalidate the core of the $600 million investment thesis and li...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Dividend cut to preserve liquidity. With net leverage at 5.0x and a negative S&P outlook, the $1.60 annual dividend ($1.9B total) is increas...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
KHC is relevant now because the recent appointment of Steve Cahillane and the reversal of the spin-off plan have created a 'honeymoon' valua...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Existential liquidity and solvency risk. The company faces a 'race against time': will the $2.5 billion efficiency program generate enough c...
Concern: High
GLP-1 and Private Label volume erosion. Structural shifts in consumer behavior could permanently reduce the volume of high-margin processed...
Concern: Medium
The governance outcome tree is currently skewed toward a 'Status Quo' failure. 1. **Status Quo**: The $600M investment fails, leading to a d...
Recent Activity
2026-01-21SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.72%Kraft Heinz files prospectus supplement for potential resale of up to 325.4 million shares by selling stockholders.
2024-05-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.03%Kraft Heinz reports Q1 2024 results with reaffirmed full year outlook.
2024-02-14SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-5.45%Vanguard Group reports 5.74% beneficial ownership of Kraft Heinz common stock.
2022-07-27SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.95%Kraft Heinz reports Q2 2022 results with raised full year outlook.
2022-02-19SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.04%Kraft Heinz appoints CEO Miguel Patricio as Chair of the Board and nominates James Park as new board member.
Valuation Table
7.5/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$21
Bear
$12
Base
$23
Bull
$24