KIM
Kimco Realty Corporation$23.51
Unclear
Target $22.67
Report: Mar 11, 2026Real Estate • REIT - Retail • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$23.51-3.6%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$17.44
(26% below current)
Fair Value
$22.67
(4% below current)
Stop Loss
$10.88
(54% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Strategic
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$23.91
52 Week Low$17.93
Avg. 3 Month Volume5.84M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin69.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin72.1%
LTM EBIT Margin42.8%
LTM Operating Margin36.0%
LTM ROA2.8%
LTM ROE5.3%
LTM ROIC3.3%
LTM ROCE4.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$15.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$23.2B
Shares Outstanding673.90M
Total Debt (MM)$8.31B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$212.79M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$8.09B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA5.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth5.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR7.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR15.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR50.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$24.14
LTM EV/Revenue10.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit15.7x
LTM EV/EBIT25.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA15.1x
LTM P/E27.3x
LTM EV/FCF35.1x
LTM P/FCF22.9x
LTM P/TB0.8x
LTM P/B1.5x
Dividend Yield4.5%
Payout Ratio124.7%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $23.51 versus fair value $22.67 (-3.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Ground Lease Disposition Program Management has identified a 300 to 500 million dollar pipeline of ground leases to be sold at 5-6 percent cap rates. Bear case centers on Interest Rate Sensitivity and Refinancing Risk Kimco has 800 million dollars in debt maturing in 2026 at a 2.65 percent average rate. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Record occupancy of 96.4 percent and double-digit leasing spreads of 13.3 percent demonstrate superior asset quality and pricing power. The 73 million dollar signed-but-not-open (SNO) pipeline provides high visibility into 2026 revenue growth.
Bear Case
High leverage of 5.4x Net Debt/EBITDA and 800 million dollars in 2026 debt maturities at a low 2.65 percent average rate create significant refinancing risk in a high-interest-rate environment. Cash depletion to 212.8 million dollars limits the margin of safety for dividend sustainability.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Ground Lease Disposition Program Management has identified a 300 to 500 million dollar pipeline of ground leases to be sold at 5-6 percent c...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
G&A Reduction via Organizational Flattening A strategic shift to a functional model is expected to reduce G&A expenses by 3 million dollars...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Our differentiated view is that the market is mispricing the quality and stability of the asset's cash flows by ignoring the structural depl...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Interest Rate Sensitivity and Refinancing Risk Kimco has 800 million dollars in debt maturing in 2026 at a 2.65 percent average rate. Refina...
Concern: Medium
Tenant Credit and Retailer Bankruptcies Ongoing financial distress among major tenants like Big Lots and Joann could lead to unexpected vaca...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, characterized by an independent board with deep real estate expertise. Lead Independent Director Mary Hogan Preusse b...
Recent Activity
2024-04-10Market Movement
-5.17%Market/Sector Move -5.17%
2023-11-14Market Movement
+7.51%Market/Sector Move +7.51%
2023-10-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.07%Kimco Realty reported Q3 2023 results with strong leasing performance and raised its dividend by 4.3%.
2021-12-02Analyst Target
+5.14%Firm: Citigroup Analyst: Michael Bilerman Price Target: $28.00 Price When Posted: $22.78 Implied Upside: +22.9%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade