KKR
KKR & Co. Inc.$89.96
Sell
Target $39.88
Report: Mar 13, 2026Financial Services • Asset Management • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$89.96-55.7%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$39.88
(56% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$153.87
52 Week Low$82.67
Avg. 3 Month Volume7.56M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin44.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin32.9%
LTM EBIT Margin32.9%
LTM Operating Margin3.8%
LTM ROA0.6%
LTM ROE7.7%
LTM ROIC1.5%
LTM ROCE1.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$82.5B
Enterprise Value (MM)$118.3B
Shares Outstanding891.41M
Total Debt (MM)$52.94B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$17.15B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$35.79B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA5.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-11.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR50.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR103.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$148.25
LTM EV/Revenue6.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit13.5x
LTM EV/EBIT18.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA18.5x
LTM P/E36.6x
LTM EV/FCF373.0x
LTM P/FCF260.2x
LTM P/TB0.2x
LTM P/B2.7x
Dividend Yield0.6%
Payout Ratio22.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $89.96 versus fair value $39.88 (-55.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Slowing Realizations and Performance Income. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Record fundraising of 129 billion USD in 2025 provides a massive tailwind for future management fees; the insurance segment is projected to drive fee-related earnings per share above 4.50 USD by 2026.
Bear Case
Operating margins have compressed from 5.3% to 3.8% despite record fees; realized performance income has collapsed by nearly 80% YoY; high leverage of 171% Debt/Equity limits financial flexibility.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Slowing Realizations and Performance Income. Realized performance income fell to 62 million USD in Q4 2025. A continued drought in exits wil...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Governance Reset and Charter Amendments. The April 21, 2026, special meeting will likely highlight institutional dissatisfaction with the cu...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
KKR is relevant for analysis now because the stock is trading at a massive premium to its fundamental value just as it enters a critical gov...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion. The biggest threat is a permanent impairment of the company's pricing power and return on capital as competitors with superior...
Concern: Medium
Liquidity and Leverage Risk. High leverage combined with low cash conversion creates a risk that KKR cannot sustain its dividend or buyback...
Concern: Medium
The Governance Outcome Tree suggests three paths: 1. Status Quo: Management continues to prioritize AUM growth over ROIC, leading to further...
Recent Activity
2026-02-27SEC Filing (DEFA14A)
-6.34%KKR files definitive additional proxy materials for 2026 special meeting
2026-02-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.35%KKR acquires Arctos Partners for $1.4 billion in strategic transaction
2026-01-17SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.48%KKR enters $3.5 billion credit facility with Global Atlantic subsidiaries
2025-10-10SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.03%KKR posts asset-based finance overview presentation
2025-09-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.32%KKR appoints Craig Arnold to Board of Directors
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
