KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation$101.71
Sell
Target $89.73
Report: Mar 11, 2026Consumer Defensive • Household & Personal Products • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$101.71-11.8%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$89.73
(12% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$147.12
52 Week Low$94.54
Avg. 3 Month Volume5.74M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin36.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin22.6%
LTM EBIT Margin17.7%
LTM Operating Margin14.3%
LTM ROA12.1%
LTM ROE155.3%
LTM ROIC20.0%
LTM ROCE29.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$32.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$38.5B
Shares Outstanding331.92M
Total Debt (MM)$7.17B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$688.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$6.48B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-14.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-5.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR2.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR2.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$123.00
LTM EV/Revenue2.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.3x
LTM EV/EBIT13.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA10.4x
LTM P/E15.8x
LTM EV/FCF23.5x
LTM P/FCF19.5x
LTM P/TB2.1x
LTM P/B21.3x
Dividend Yield5.2%
Payout Ratio82.9%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $101.71 versus fair value $89.73 (-11.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Closing of the Kenvue acquisition in H2 2026. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion from Private-Label Competition. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The Kenvue merger could create $2B in cost synergies and pivot the company toward higher-growth health categories. Market share gains in China (+180 bps) and Brazil (+100 bps) demonstrate international resilience.
Bear Case
Revenue is in a structural downtrend (-18% YoY) and the brand moat is eroding as gross margins trail peers by 1,840 basis points. Debt-funded buybacks ($1.6B) with a negative 20% trade ROI suggest poor capital allocation discipline.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Closing of the Kenvue acquisition in H2 2026. This is the critical event that will either validate the growth pivot or expose significant in...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Realization of $200M in SG&A savings from the Powering Care reorganization. This is necessary to stop the erosion of operating margins which...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Kimberly-Clark is relevant for analysis now due to the 18% revenue contraction in FY2025 and the recent surge in short interest to 11.8%, in...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion from Private-Label Competition. The mechanism is a permanent loss of pricing power and market share in the diaper and tissue ca...
Concern: Medium
Latent Litigation and PFAS Exposure. Ongoing class-action lawsuits regarding PFAS contamination and lead in tampons could lead to multi-bill...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is rated as 'Capable but Constrained.' The board is highly independent and includes experienced CPG leaders like Mark Smucker, b...
Recent Activity
2024-07-23SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.73%Kimberly-Clark reports Q2 2024 results with 4% organic sales growth and raises full-year outlook
2024-04-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.51%Kimberly-Clark reports Q1 2024 results with 6% organic sales growth and raises full-year outlook
2024-01-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.53%Kimberly-Clark reported 2023 full-year results with $20.4 billion in net sales and provided 2024 outlook.
2022-04-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.13%Kimberly-Clark reports Q1 2022 results with 10% organic sales growth
2021-04-23SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.86%Kimberly-Clark reports Q1 2021 results with 5% sales decline and updated 2021 outlook
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$57
Bear
$86
Base
$113
Bull
$102