KMI
Kinder Morgan, Inc.$33.39
Sell
Target $14.54
Report: Mar 08, 2026Energy • Oil & Gas Midstream • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$33.39-56.5%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$14.54
(56% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$34.73
52 Week Low$23.94
Avg. 3 Month Volume14.48M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin46.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin48.1%
LTM EBIT Margin33.6%
LTM Operating Margin27.9%
LTM ROA4.2%
LTM ROE9.9%
LTM ROIC7.2%
LTM ROCE8.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$74.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$106.5B
Shares Outstanding2.22B
Total Debt (MM)$32.00B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$63.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$31.94B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth12.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-4.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR5.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR7.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$34.33
LTM EV/Revenue6.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit13.5x
LTM EV/EBIT18.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA13.1x
LTM P/E24.4x
LTM EV/FCF36.9x
LTM P/FCF25.8x
LTM P/TB1.5x
LTM P/B2.4x
Dividend Yield3.5%
Payout Ratio85.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $33.39 versus fair value $14.54 (-56.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Asset Monetization and Recycling Management's recent sale of the EagleHawk interest at an 8.5x multiple demonstrates a pivot toward recycling capital into higher-return projects. Bear case centers on Regulatory and Litigation Delays The mechanism for value impairment is the 'stay' or cancellation of major projects by environmental groups or courts, which traps capital in non-productive assets and increases interest expense without of... Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
KMI is a primary beneficiary of the LNG export boom, with natural gas transport volumes up 9% QoQ; 95% of budgeted cash flow is protected by fee-based or take-or-pay contracts; S&P recently upgraded the credit rating to BBB+ reflecting balance sheet discipline.
Bear Case
Gross margins compressed 200 basis points to 46.7% in FY2025 despite higher volumes; overall ROIC of 3.9% is well below the 9.5% cost of capital; the stock trades at a 56% premium to our reliability-adjusted fair value of $14.54.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Asset Monetization and Recycling Management's recent sale of the EagleHawk interest at an 8.5x multiple demonstrates a pivot toward recyclin...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Regulatory Acceleration via FERC 871 Repeal The repeal of FERC rule 871 has removed a mandatory 5-month waiting period for project starts. T...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
KMI is at a critical juncture as it integrates the Outrigger acquisition and begins construction on the Trident project, making the next 12...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Regulatory and Litigation Delays The mechanism for value impairment is the 'stay' or cancellation of major projects by environmental groups...
Concern: Medium
Margin Compression from Cost Inflation Rising labor costs and compression energy prices (fuel used to move gas) are increasing faster than t...
Concern: Medium
Governance is a significant strength for KMI, anchored by Executive Chairman Richard Kinder's 11.6% stake and $1 annual salary. However, inv...
Recent Activity
2025-04-04Market Movement
-8.77%Market/Sector Move -8.77%
2021-10-21SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.01%Kinder Morgan announces $0.27 per share dividend and reports Q3 2021 results with net income of $495 million and DCF of $1,013 million.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$4
Bear
$8
Base
$10
Bull
$33