LLY
Eli Lilly and Company$1001.35
Unclear
Target $1013.04
Report: Mar 11, 2026Healthcare • Drug Manufacturers - General • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$1001.35+1.2%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$779.26
(22% below current)
Fair Value
$1013.04
(1% above current)
Stop Loss
$623.78
(38% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$1,133.95
52 Week Low$623.78
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.12M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin83.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin42.5%
LTM EBIT Margin39.5%
LTM Operating Margin40.4%
LTM ROA19.8%
LTM ROE97.9%
LTM ROIC28.2%
LTM ROCE39.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$867.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$902.9B
Shares Outstanding895.80M
Total Debt (MM)$42.50B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$7.27B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$35.23B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth44.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR31.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR49.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR49.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$1,243.95
LTM EV/Revenue13.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit16.7x
LTM EV/EBIT35.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA32.6x
LTM P/E42.0x
LTM EV/FCF100.6x
LTM P/FCF96.7x
LTM P/TB8.7x
LTM P/B32.7x
Dividend Yield0.5%
Payout Ratio19.6%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $1001.35 versus fair value $1013.04 (1.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Q2 2026 US launch of oral GLP-1 orforglipron expands obesity TAM beyond injectables, addressing market concern on tirzepatide concentration (56% revenue) by validating pipeline layering per Phase 3 data and transcript emphasis on market... Bear case centers on GLP-1 competition from NVO/Viking erodes tirzepatide pricing power (56% revenue), compressing margins via low-to-mid teens declines and share loss. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Tirzepatide volume sustains 25%+ growth to $80-83B 2026 revenue with 83.0% gross margins and 22.6% ROIC; orforglipron/retatrutide layer $ multi-billions in obesity TAM expansion; Kisunla diversifies with 50% amyloid share.
Bear Case
56% revenue concentration in tirzepatide vulnerable to NVO competition and IRA pricing caps eroding low-to-mid teens annually; high CapEx 12.0% revenue pressures FCF yield to 0.9%; extreme 45.8x P/E assumes flawless execution.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Q2 2026 US launch of oral GLP-1 orforglipron expands obesity TAM beyond injectables, addressing market concern on tirzepatide concentration...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Medicare obesity coverage starting July 1 2026 at $50/month copay accelerates Zepbound ramp, shifting sentiment from access fears to volume...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
LLY relevance peaks now with Q4 2025 earnings validating 45% revenue growth and 2026 $80-83B guidance amid pricing scrutiny.
Primary Risks
Concern: High
GLP-1 competition from NVO/Viking erodes tirzepatide pricing power (56% revenue), compressing margins via low-to-mid teens declines and shar...
Concern: Medium
Patent challenges accelerate tirzepatide cliff pre-2036, triggering generic erosion and revenue fade.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong with TSR/EPS-aligned incentives (175-200% payouts on 211.6% 3Y TSR vs 10.3% peer median, $26.93 cumulative EPS vs $18....
Recent Activity
2026-02-05Analyst Target
-7.79%Firm: BMO Capital Analyst: Evan Seigerman Price Target: $1,300.00 Price When Posted: $1,107.12 Implied Upside: +17.4%
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.33%Eli Lilly reports Q4 2025 financial results and provides 2026 guidance with record revenue and EPS growth.
2025-08-07SEC Filing (8-K)
-14.14%Eli Lilly reports Q2 2025 financial results with 38% revenue growth and raises full-year guidance.
2025-05-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-11.66%Eli Lilly reports Q1 2025 financial results with 45% revenue growth and raises 2025 guidance.
2025-04-17SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+14.30%Lilly Endowment Inc. reports 10.1% beneficial ownership of Eli Lilly common stock as of March 31, 2025.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$760
Bear
$1212
Base
$1509
Bull
$1001