LVS
Las Vegas Sands Corp.$56.07
Unclear
Target $61.45
Report: Mar 07, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Gambling, Resorts & Casinos • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$56.07+9.6%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$47.27
(16% below current)
Fair Value
$61.45
(10% above current)
Stop Loss
$49.00
(13% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$70.45
52 Week Low$30.18
Avg. 3 Month Volume5.35M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin49.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin32.1%
LTM EBIT Margin20.9%
LTM Operating Margin21.6%
LTM ROA7.5%
LTM ROE82.9%
LTM ROIC9.7%
LTM ROCE16.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$36.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$48.0B
Shares Outstanding676.00M
Total Debt (MM)$15.78B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$3.97B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$11.82B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth15.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR46.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR4.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-0.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$70.50
LTM EV/Revenue3.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.4x
LTM EV/EBIT17.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA11.5x
LTM P/E22.3x
LTM EV/FCF25.8x
LTM P/FCF19.4x
LTM P/TB1.7x
LTM P/B22.8x
Dividend Yield1.9%
Payout Ratio42.7%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $56.07 versus fair value $61.45 (9.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Macau Margin Inflection Management targets a return to 'low-30s' portfolio margins in Macau as the Londoner Grand renovation fully ramps and side-bet adoption increases gaming yields. Bear case centers on Balance Sheet Fragility The 992.7% Debt/Equity ratio and $15.8B total debt load create significant interest rate and refinancing risk. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Marina Bay Sands continues to outperform with >50% EBITDA margins and record tourism demand; Macau mass-market share gains to 25% signal a successful strategic pivot; aggressive share repurchases have reduced diluted share count by 6% YoY.
Bear Case
Extreme leverage with $15.8B in debt and 992.7% Debt/Equity limits financial flexibility; Macau margins are being squeezed by a shift toward lower-margin rolling play; stagnant base-mass spend per head in Macau suggests a structural ceiling on recovery.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Macau Margin Inflection Management targets a return to 'low-30s' portfolio margins in Macau as the Londoner Grand renovation fully ramps and...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Marina Bay Sands Expansion (IR2) Groundbreaking The $8.0B expansion project in Singapore, including a 15,000-seat arena, will solidify the p...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Las Vegas Sands is relevant at this moment because it is trading near its 200-day moving average ($54.87) following a 14% post-earnings sell...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Balance Sheet Fragility The 992.7% Debt/Equity ratio and $15.8B total debt load create significant interest rate and refinancing risk. A 'lo...
Concern: Medium
China Macroeconomic and Regulatory Risk Stagnant base-mass spend per head in Macau and potential regulatory shifts regarding capital outflow...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is characterized by strong operational expertise but weak alignment with minority shareholders. The governance outcome tree is c...
Recent Activity
2026-01-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-13.96%Las Vegas Sands reported Q4 2025 results with $3.65 billion net revenue and $448 million net income.
2025-10-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+12.39%Las Vegas Sands reported Q3 2025 results with $3.33 billion net revenue and $491 million net income.
2025-04-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.66%Las Vegas Sands reports Q1 2025 results with slight revenue decline but strong EBITDA.
2025-04-04Market Movement
-8.35%Market/Sector Move -8.35%
2025-01-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.08%Las Vegas Sands reports Q4 2024 results with slight revenue decline and strong full-year performance.
Valuation Table
9.6/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$54
Bear
$100
Bull
$56