MDLZ
Mondelez International, Inc.$56.58
Unclear
Target $57.95
Report: Mar 11, 2026Consumer Defensive • Food Confectioners • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$56.58+2.4%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$44.58
(21% below current)
Fair Value
$57.95
(2% above current)
Stop Loss
$41.16
(27% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$71.15
52 Week Low$51.20
Avg. 3 Month Volume11.15M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin28.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin12.6%
LTM EBIT Margin9.1%
LTM Operating Margin9.2%
LTM ROA3.5%
LTM ROE9.4%
LTM ROIC13.7%
LTM ROCE7.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$73.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$93.6B
Shares Outstanding1.28B
Total Debt (MM)$21.80B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.13B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$19.68B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA4.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth5.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR7.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-1.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-1.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$66.46
LTM EV/Revenue2.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit8.6x
LTM EV/EBIT26.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA19.2x
LTM P/E30.1x
LTM EV/FCF28.8x
LTM P/FCF22.8x
LTM P/TB2.7x
LTM P/B2.9x
Dividend Yield3.4%
Payout Ratio103.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $56.58 versus fair value $57.95 (2.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Cocoa Price Normalization A decline in cocoa input costs in 2026 is expected to restore gross margins toward the 30-32% range, validating management's recovery thesis. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion and Private Label Substitution The mechanism is a permanent loss of pricing power as consumers switch to cheaper alternatives, leading to sustained volume declines. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Emerging markets continue to provide a high-growth runway, with 8.5% revenue growth and 100,000 new outlets added annually. Cocoa prices are projected to deflate in 2026, providing a clear path for gross margins to mean-revert toward the 35-39% historical range.
Bear Case
The competitive moat is eroding, as evidenced by a 16.1 point gross margin deficit versus peers and a 4.8% decline in sales volumes. Debt-funded buybacks, where debt increased $3.4B to fund $2.4B in repurchases, signal a deteriorating quality of capital allocation.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Cocoa Price Normalization A decline in cocoa input costs in 2026 is expected to restore gross margins toward the 30-32% range, validating ma...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
ERP System Implementation Completion The $1.2B global ERP upgrade is designed to add 4% to productivity and optimize supply chain logistics.
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Mondelez is relevant for analysis now because it is at a fundamental crossroads: the stock is trading near 52-week lows while the company pr...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion and Private Label Substitution The mechanism is a permanent loss of pricing power as consumers switch to cheaper alternatives,...
Concern: Medium
Sustained Commodity Volatility Continued cocoa price spikes could prevent margin recovery, forcing further debt-funded capital returns to su...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate for a mature compounder, but the 24-year auditor tenure and the lack of specific M&A expertise on the board are long...
Recent Activity
2025-07-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.61%Mondelëz International reports Q2 2025 results with 7.7% net revenue growth and 8.9% increase in diluted EPS to $0.49
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$41
Bear
$71
Bull
$57