MNST
Monster Beverage Corporation$81.06
Unclear
Target $75.25
Report: Mar 07, 2026Consumer Defensive • Beverages - Non-Alcoholic • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$81.06-7.2%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$57.88
(29% below current)
Fair Value
$75.25
(7% below current)
Stop Loss
$54.00
(33% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$87.38
52 Week Low$54.73
Avg. 3 Month Volume6.14M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin55.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin31.5%
LTM EBIT Margin29.9%
LTM Operating Margin29.2%
LTM ROA20.8%
LTM ROE25.7%
LTM ROIC79.3%
LTM ROCE33.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$70.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$68.9B
Shares Outstanding977.54M
Total Debt (MM)$127.07M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.09B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-1.96B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth10.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR9.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR16.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR19.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$83.92
LTM EV/Revenue8.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit14.9x
LTM EV/EBIT27.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA26.4x
LTM P/E37.2x
LTM EV/FCF35.4x
LTM P/FCF36.4x
LTM P/TB9.7x
LTM P/B8.6x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $81.06 versus fair value $75.25 (-7.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Sustained International Share Gains International sales must maintain a 45% share of total revenue to validate the growth narrative and offset U.S. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion and Competitive Intensity The biggest threat is a permanent impairment of pricing power caused by aggressive competition from Red Bull or new low-cost entrants in emerging markets. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
International sales are accelerating, reaching 43% of total revenue with 26.9% YoY growth; the company maintains a fortress balance sheet with $1.96 billion in net cash and zero interest expense.
Bear Case
Insiders have sold $36.4 million in stock over the last 12 months with zero purchases; incremental ROIC has turned negative at -572 basis points, suggesting value destruction in recent investments.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Sustained International Share Gains International sales must maintain a 45% share of total revenue to validate the growth narrative and offs...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Zero-Sugar Innovation Rollout The full U.S. rollout of the Lando Norris Zero Sugar line and other Ultra SKUs is expected to drive volume gro...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Monster is relevant for analysis now as it navigates a critical transition from a U.S.-centric growth story to a global 'affordable energy'...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion and Competitive Intensity The biggest threat is a permanent impairment of pricing power caused by aggressive competition from R...
Concern: High
Aluminum Cost Inflation and Tariff Impact Rising aluminum can costs and potential tariffs could permanently compress gross margins if the co...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is adequate but cautious. Management has protected the core moat and maintained a fortress balance sheet, but the la...
Recent Activity
2025-11-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.16%Monster Beverage reports Q3 2025 financial results with record sales and strong profit growth
2025-08-08SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.40%Monster Beverage reports Q2 2025 financial results with record sales and improved profitability
2025-02-28SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.26%Monster Beverage reports 2024 Q4 and full-year net sales growth despite foreign currency headwinds and Alcohol Brands segment challenges.
2024-11-15SEC Filing (SC 13G)
-7.08%AllianceBernstein L.P. reports 5.0% beneficial ownership of Monster Beverage Corp common stock as of 09/30/2024
2024-08-08SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.92%Monster Beverage reports Q2 2024 record net sales up 2.5% to $1.90B with net income up 2.8% to $425.4M
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$51
Bear
$92
Bull
$81