MO
Altria Group, Inc.$68.12
Unclear
Target $63.66
Report: Mar 07, 2026Consumer Defensive • Tobacco • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$68.12-6.5%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$48.97
(28% below current)
Fair Value
$63.66
(7% below current)
Stop Loss
$37.33
(45% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$70.51
52 Week Low$52.82
Avg. 3 Month Volume10.20M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin62.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin46.1%
LTM EBIT Margin45.0%
LTM Operating Margin42.5%
LTM ROA20.1%
LTM ROE-215.2%
LTM ROIC35.8%
LTM ROCE40.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$110.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$131.6B
Shares Outstanding1.67B
Total Debt (MM)$25.71B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$4.47B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$21.23B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-3.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-2.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR7.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR8.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$61.25
LTM EV/Revenue5.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit9.0x
LTM EV/EBIT12.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.3x
LTM P/E15.9x
LTM EV/FCF14.5x
LTM P/FCF12.2x
LTM P/TB6.4x
LTM P/B-31.5x
Dividend Yield6.3%
Payout Ratio101.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $68.12 versus fair value $63.66 (-6.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on National rollout of on! Bear case centers on Moat erosion in the smokeable segment due to illicit e-vapor competition. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Pricing power remains elite, with 8.4% net price realization more than offsetting cost inflation; the on! PLUS national rollout in 2026 provides a clear path to oral tobacco share gains; capital allocation is highly disciplined, with a 7.2% net buyback yield and 56 consecutive years of dividend increases.
Bear Case
Combustible volume declines are accelerating, reaching 8.2% in late 2025; illicit e-vapor products continue to dominate 70% of the category, undermining authorized product growth; the balance sheet carries 25.7B in debt and negative equity, limiting flexibility for further large-scale M&A.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
National rollout of on! PLUS oral nicotine pouches. This addresses market concerns regarding oral tobacco share loss to ZYN and validates th...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Expansion of the KT&G collaboration to 40,000 international retail locations. This provides a new growth lever outside the saturated U.S. ma...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Altria is relevant for analysis now due to the impending CEO transition in May 2026 and the critical H1 2026 rollout of on! PLUS, which will...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat erosion in the smokeable segment due to illicit e-vapor competition. Illicit disposable vapes (70% of category) provide a low-cost alte...
Concern: Medium
Regulatory disruption of the oral nicotine category. Potential FDA restrictions on flavors or marketing for nicotine pouches could derail th...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate, characterized by disciplined capital returns but tempered by modest insider ownership and mixed M&A effectiveness (...
Recent Activity
2026-01-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.34%Altria reports 2025 Q4 financial results
2025-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.81%Altria reports Q3 2025 results, expands share repurchase program, and narrows 2025 EPS guidance
2024-10-31SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.84%Altria reports Q3 2024 results and reaffirms 2024 full-year EPS guidance
2023-10-26SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.31%Altria reports Q3 2023 results and narrows full-year EPS guidance to $4.91-$4.98
2023-02-01SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.55%Altria reports 2022 Q4 and full-year results, provides 2023 EPS guidance, and announces new $1B share repurchase program.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade