MOS
The Mosaic Company$27.37
Sell
Target $22.45
Report: Mar 07, 2026Basic Materials • Agricultural Inputs • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$27.37-18.0%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$22.45
(18% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$38.23
52 Week Low$22.36
Avg. 3 Month Volume8.92M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin15.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin20.1%
LTM EBIT Margin11.4%
LTM Operating Margin6.8%
LTM ROA2.2%
LTM ROE4.4%
LTM ROIC5.9%
LTM ROCE7.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$8.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$12.9B
Shares Outstanding317.60M
Total Debt (MM)$5.05B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$276.60M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$4.78B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth8.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-14.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-25.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-44.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$33.80
LTM EV/Revenue1.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.8x
LTM EV/EBIT9.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA5.3x
LTM P/E15.0x
LTM EV/FCF-24.1x
LTM P/FCF-15.1x
LTM P/TB0.3x
LTM P/B0.7x
Dividend Yield3.5%
Payout Ratio51.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $27.37 versus fair value $22.45 (-18.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Working Capital Release Management anticipates a 300 million to 500 million release from inventory drawdowns in 2026. Bear case centers on Lower-for-Longer Commodity Cycle A sustained period of low phosphate and potash prices would prevent the projected working capital release and force the company to service its 4.6 billion debt load from a position of negative free cash f... Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Global potash demand remains robust in China and Southeast Asia; Management achieves 300 million to 500 million in working capital release in 2026; Cost-saving initiatives successfully lower phosphate conversion costs below 100 per tonne.
Bear Case
Debt-funded buybacks at peak valuations have permanently impaired the balance sheet; CEO's total share sale signals a lack of confidence in the recovery; U.S. phosphate demand destruction continues due to affordability issues and government policy uncertainty.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Working Capital Release Management anticipates a 300 million to 500 million release from inventory drawdowns in 2026. If realized, this woul...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Mosaic is currently a value trap where aggressive capital returns have outpaced organic cash generation, leading to a 2.1x net leverage rati...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Mosaic is relevant at this moment because it has reached a critical leverage threshold of 2.1x net debt/EBITDA just as the CEO has exited hi...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-Longer Commodity Cycle A sustained period of low phosphate and potash prices would prevent the projected working capital release a...
Concern: Medium
The bear case fair value of 5.92 is derived from a distressed DCF scenario assuming a prolonged U.S. phosphate demand downturn, continued ma...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is negative due to the total lack of alignment between the CEO and shareholders. The Governance Outcome Tree suggest...
Recent Activity
2026-02-25SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.30%Mosaic Company reported Q4 2025 net loss of $519 million and full year 2025 net income of $541 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 billion for the year.
2026-01-14Analyst Target
+5.46%Firm: Morgan Stanley Price Target: $35.00 Price When Posted: $26.21 Implied Upside: +33.5%
2025-10-10SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.24%Mosaic announces preliminary third quarter 2025 production volumes
2025-08-06SEC Filing (SC 13G)
-13.31%FMR LLC and Abigail P. Johnson report 6.6% ownership in Mosaic Co.
2024-11-12SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.74%Mosaic Company reports Q3 2024 results with net income of $122 million and announces CFO succession
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade