MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation$217.36
Unclear
Target $208.86
Report: Mar 08, 2026Energy • Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$217.36-3.9%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$160.66
(26% below current)
Fair Value
$208.86
(4% below current)
Stop Loss
$175.00
(19% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Transitional (12-24 Months)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$255.77
52 Week Low$115.10
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.60M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin11.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin7.2%
LTM EBIT Margin4.8%
LTM Operating Margin6.1%
LTM ROA4.9%
LTM ROE24.0%
LTM ROIC7.9%
LTM ROCE10.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$72.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$102.7B
Shares Outstanding299.00M
Total Debt (MM)$34.36B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$3.67B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$30.69B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-3.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-9.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-25.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-22.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$202.22
LTM EV/Revenue0.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.5x
LTM EV/EBIT15.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA10.6x
LTM P/E17.8x
LTM EV/FCF17.8x
LTM P/FCF12.5x
LTM P/TB1.0x
LTM P/B4.2x
Dividend Yield1.6%
Payout Ratio28.7%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $217.36 versus fair value $208.86 (-3.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Garyville Feedstock Optimization Project Completion This project adds 30,000 barrels per day of crude throughput and enhances export flexibility. Bear case centers on Cyclical Margin Compression A 'lower-for-longer' crack spread environment driven by new global capacity (Middle East/Asia) could impair MPC's ability to fund its aggressive buyback program, leading to a de-rating of the stock. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
MPC's structural cost advantage allows it to remain profitable even if peers like Valero face operating losses; aggressive buybacks provide a persistent bid for shares and EPS accretion; MPLX distributions provide a $3.5B annual cash floor.
Bear Case
Global refining overcapacity in the Middle East and Asia threatens long-term crack spreads; high leverage (198.4% Debt/Equity) limits flexibility in a prolonged downturn; current valuation multiples are at multi-year highs despite declining revenue.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Garyville Feedstock Optimization Project Completion This project adds 30,000 barrels per day of crude throughput and enhances export flexibi...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
MPLX Distribution Growth MPLX is targeting 12.5% distribution growth over the next two years. This increases the cash flow floor for MPC, di...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Marathon Petroleum is relevant now because it has just completed a major leadership transition and is trading near all-time highs, testing t...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Cyclical Margin Compression A 'lower-for-longer' crack spread environment driven by new global capacity (Middle East/Asia) could impair MPC'...
Concern: High
Balance Sheet Leverage With a Debt/Equity ratio of 198.4% and net debt of $30.7B, the company is more levered than peers. A sharp downturn c...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, characterized by a 'Cannibal' mindset that prioritizes share count reduction over empire building. The governance out...
Recent Activity
2026-02-03SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.03%Marathon Petroleum Corp. reports Q4 2025 results with $1.5B net income and outlines 2026 capital spending plans
2025-11-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.13%Marathon Petroleum reports Q3 2025 net income of $1.4 billion, or $4.51 per diluted share.
2025-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.74%Marathon Petroleum reports Q4 2024 net income of $371 million, or $1.15 per diluted share.
2024-08-06SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.46%Marathon Petroleum reports second-quarter 2024 results with net income of $1.5 billion.
2024-04-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.37%Marathon Petroleum reports first-quarter 2024 results with net income of $937 million.
Valuation Table
9.4/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$131
Bear
$426
Bull
$217