MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.$1142.58
Sell
Target $833.21
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Semiconductors • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$1142.58-27.1%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$833.21
(27% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$1,256.22
52 Week Low$438.86
Avg. 3 Month Volume595K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin55.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin29.3%
LTM EBIT Margin27.5%
LTM Operating Margin26.1%
LTM ROA15.4%
LTM ROE18.1%
LTM ROIC28.2%
LTM ROCE21.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$53.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$52.6B
Shares Outstanding48.50M
Total Debt (MM)$0.00M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.10B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-1.10B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-1.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth26.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR15.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR13.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR11.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$1,313.71
LTM EV/Revenue18.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit34.2x
LTM EV/EBIT68.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA64.3x
LTM P/E86.4x
LTM EV/FCF79.0x
LTM P/FCF80.6x
LTM P/TB12.9x
LTM P/B15.2x
Dividend Yield0.6%
Payout Ratio48.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $1142.58 versus fair value $833.21 (-27.1% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Q1 2026 earnings confirming Nvidia recovery or restatement resolution, addressing market concerns on execution and validating/rejecting 50% data growth floor per FY2025 Q4 backlog. Bear case centers on Moat erosion via Nvidia Blackwell cancellations slashing AI allocation, impairing 50% enterprise data growth and compressing ROIC from 28.2%. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
AI data center demand with 50%+ enterprise growth floor and backlog into Q2 2026; automotive 48V/zonal wins; 72% FCF returns ($1.6B dividends/buybacks 2021-2025) on $1.1B net cash fortress.
Bear Case
Eroding moat via Nvidia order losses and patent invalidations; insider sales $552M (261 transactions, 0 buys); negative incremental ROIC -155.9%; peak capex cycle with flat 55.2% gross margins despite 26.4% growth.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Q1 2026 earnings confirming Nvidia recovery or restatement resolution, addressing market concerns on execution and validating/rejecting 50%...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
MPWR's TTM revenue of $2.79B grew 26.4% but flat 55.2% gross margins and $552M insider sales signal peak cycle vulnerability; Nvidia cuts an...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent Nvidia cuts and February 2026 restatement flags create de-rating pressure amid $552M insider sales, making Q1 results pivotal for mul...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat erosion via Nvidia Blackwell cancellations slashing AI allocation, impairing 50% enterprise data growth and compressing ROIC from 28.2%...
Concern: High
Insider selling escalates de-rating, with $552M sales signaling conviction gap vs growth narrative.
Concern: Medium
$552M insider sales with zero buys amid 28.2% ROIC signals misalignment; strong board (ex-CEOs/CFOs) mitigates but proxy access unused and c...
Recent Activity
2026-02-06SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+6.39%FMR LLC updates beneficial ownership to 8.3% of Monolithic Power shares.
2025-10-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.59%Monolithic Power Systems reports Q3 2025 financial results with 10.9% sequential revenue growth to $737.2M.
2025-10-23Analyst Target
+6.93%Firm: KeyBanc Analyst: John Vinh Price Target: $1,250.00 Price When Posted: $1,054.15 Implied Upside: +18.6%
2025-08-01SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.46%Monolithic Power Systems reports Q2 2025 revenue of $664.6M, up 31% YoY
2025-05-02SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.86%Monolithic Power Systems reports Q1 2025 financial results with 39.2% revenue growth to $637.6M
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$654
Bear
$937
Base
$1036
Bull
$1143