MRNA
Moderna, Inc.$54.98
Sell
Target $29.57
Report: Mar 11, 2026Healthcare • Biotechnology • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$54.98-46.2%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$29.57
(46% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$59.55
52 Week Low$22.28
Avg. 3 Month Volume11.05M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin55.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin-131.3%
LTM EBIT Margin-142.4%
LTM Operating Margin-158.1%
LTM ROA-22.9%
LTM ROE-30.1%
LTM ROIC-28.3%
LTM ROCE-25.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$20.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$18.7B
Shares Outstanding392.00M
Total Debt (MM)$1.26B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.60B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-1.33B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-39.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-53.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$35.67
LTM EV/Revenue9.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit17.4x
LTM EV/EBIT-6.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA-7.3x
LTM P/E-7.1x
LTM EV/FCF-9.0x
LTM P/FCF-9.7x
LTM P/TB1.6x
LTM P/B2.3x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $54.98 versus fair value $29.57 (-46.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Refiling of the Flu/COVID combination vaccine. Bear case centers on Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn in vaccine demand. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The 'Oncology Renaissance' driven by Phase 3 success of the Merck-partnered cancer vaccine could unlock a multi-billion dollar market. A 6 billion USD cash reserve provides a sufficient runway to reach the 2028 breakeven target if cost-cutting measures succeed.
Bear Case
The revenue cliff is structural, with COVID-19 demand unlikely to recover to levels that support the current 4.1 billion USD operating expense base. Regulatory setbacks and patent litigation settlements are accelerating cash depletion, while pro-cyclical management has shown poor timing in capital preservation.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Refiling of the Flu/COVID combination vaccine. This addresses the regulatory uncertainty created by the recent FDA refusal-to-file and is cr...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Phase 3 INT Oncology Data Readout. Positive data from the Merck-partnered melanoma trial would validate the platform's non-respiratory poten...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Moderna is at a critical juncture following a 40% revenue collapse and a major 950 million USD patent settlement, making the next 12 months...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn in vaccine demand. If COVID-19 and RSV uptake continues to decline, the company's 4.2 billion USD cash co...
Concern: Medium
Regulatory and Political Risk. The appointment of vaccine-skeptical leadership to U.S. health agencies could slow approvals and federal fund...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate in terms of alignment but weak in execution. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: Continued burn and...
Recent Activity
2026-03-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.87%Moderna settled patent litigation with Arbutus/Genevant, providing certainty for infectious disease portfolio.
2026-03-04Analyst Target
+15.99%Firm: Jefferies Analyst: Andrew Tsai Price Target: $37.00 Price When Posted: $49.83 Implied Downside: -25.7%
2026-02-13SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.29%Moderna reports Q4/FY 2025 results with revenue of $0.7B/$1.9B and GAAP net loss of $(0.8)B/$(2.8)B
2026-01-13SEC Filing (8-K)
+17.02%Moderna provided business and pipeline updates at 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference.
2026-01-06SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.85%Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel provides 2025 year-end letter highlighting commercial progress and pipeline momentum
Valuation Table
9.7/10Decision Grade