MRSH
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.$173.52
Hold
Target $197.27
Report: Mar 11, 2026Financial Services • Insurance - Brokers • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$173.52+13.7%
Rec: HoldConviction: High
Entry Target
$151.75
(13% below current)
Fair Value
$197.27
(14% above current)
Stop Loss
$159.38
(8% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$248.00
52 Week Low$164.89
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.11M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin28.3%
LTM EBIT Margin23.8%
LTM Operating Margin23.1%
LTM ROA7.1%
LTM ROE27.7%
LTM ROIC37.5%
LTM ROCE17.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$84.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$91.3B
Shares Outstanding488.00M
Total Debt (MM)$21.45B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$14.16B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$7.29B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth10.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR9.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR10.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR11.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$212.82
LTM EV/Revenue3.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.4x
LTM EV/EBIT14.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.0x
LTM P/E20.2x
LTM EV/FCF18.2x
LTM P/FCF16.8x
LTM P/TB2.8x
LTM P/B5.6x
Dividend Yield2.0%
Payout Ratio41.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $173.52 versus fair value $197.27 (13.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of Thrive Program Savings Management targets $400 million in annual savings by 2026. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion and Pricing Pressure A permanent impairment of the moat could occur if disruptive technology bypasses the broker network or if structural pricing power in the risk placement market is lost due to new low-cost competitors. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Half sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
Marsh's widening moat is evidenced by an ROIC of 37.5%, which significantly outperforms peers and is supported by a 127% cash conversion rate. The integration of the $7.75 billion McGriff deal and the $400 million Thrive savings program provide clear pathways for margin recovery and EPS growth in 2026.
Bear Case
Operating margins contracted 70 basis points to 23.1% in 2025, suggesting that the Thrive program's benefits are being offset by rising SG&A and interest expenses. Additionally, the firm's 4% organic growth lags behind faster-growing peers like AJG, and recent buybacks were executed at high multiples with negative trade ROIs.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Realization of Thrive Program Savings Management targets $400 million in annual savings by 2026. As the $500 million in associated charges r...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
McGriff Acquisition Accretion The $7.75 billion acquisition is expected to be modestly accretive to adjusted EPS in its first full year. Suc...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Marsh is currently at a strategic inflection point following its 2026 rebranding and the closing of its largest acquisition in years, making...
Primary Risks
Concern: Low
Moat Erosion and Pricing Pressure A permanent impairment of the moat could occur if disruptive technology bypasses the broker network or if...
Concern: Medium
Integration and Execution Risk The failure to realize the $400 million in Thrive savings or the expected accretion from the McGriff deal wou...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is strong, characterized by a board with deep financial expertise, including Audit Chair Anthony Anderson (former EY...
Recent Activity
2026-01-29SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.47%Marsh reports Q4 and full-year 2025 results
2025-10-16SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.52%Marsh McLennan reports Q3 2025 financial results
2022-10-28SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.48%Marsh McLennan prices $1 billion senior notes offering
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$10
Bull
$174