MSCI
MSCI Inc.$550.11
Unclear
Target $496.01
Report: Mar 13, 2026Financial Services • Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$550.11-9.8%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$381.55
(31% below current)
Fair Value
$496.01
(10% below current)
Stop Loss
$378.87
(31% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$626.28
52 Week Low$486.74
Avg. 3 Month Volume620K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin82.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin61.3%
LTM EBIT Margin54.4%
LTM Operating Margin54.7%
LTM ROA22.1%
LTM ROE-75.0%
LTM ROIC34.0%
LTM ROCE43.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$39.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$45.4B
Shares Outstanding74.54M
Total Debt (MM)$6.31B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$515.33M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$5.79B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth9.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR11.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR12.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR13.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$666.57
LTM EV/Revenue14.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit17.6x
LTM EV/EBIT26.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA23.6x
LTM P/E32.9x
LTM EV/FCF31.1x
LTM P/FCF27.2x
LTM P/TB20.3x
LTM P/B-14.9x
Dividend Yield1.3%
Payout Ratio45.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $550.11 versus fair value $496.01 (-9.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Successful integration of AI Portfolio Insights and PCS data solutions. Bear case centers on Leverage escalation and interest rate sensitivity. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
1. Unrivaled switching costs in the Index segment with 94%+ retention. 2. Massive growth optionality in Private Capital Solutions and AI-driven analytics. 3. Exceptional management track record with 23.5% TSR CAGR since IPO.
Bear Case
1. Increasing financial risk from debt-funded buybacks and negative tangible book value. 2. Potential margin compression from ESG regulatory scrutiny and self-indexing threats. 3. Leadership transition risk following the retirement of the President/COO.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Successful integration of AI Portfolio Insights and PCS data solutions. This would validate the 'One MSCI' strategy and prove the company ca...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Resolution of the ESG ratings bias probe. Clearing this regulatory hurdle would remove a significant reputational overhang and stabilize Sus...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
MSCI is at a critical juncture following the March 2026 retirement of its President and the 10-year extension of its BlackRock agreement, ma...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Leverage escalation and interest rate sensitivity. Debt grew 38% YoY to $6.3B. If FCF growth slows, the debt-funded buyback model could beco...
Concern: High
Moat erosion from self-indexing and regulatory standardization. Large asset managers like BlackRock (10.8% of revenue) could shift more AUM...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong but entering a transitional phase. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: Fernandez successfully integra...
Recent Activity
2026-01-28SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.69%MSCI reports Q4 2025 and full year 2025 financial results with strong performance across segments
2025-10-28SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.58%MSCI reports Q3 2025 and nine months 2025 financial results with record performance
2025-07-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.91%MSCI reported Q2 2025 financial results with 9.1% revenue growth and 8.3% organic growth.
2025-01-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.62%MSCI reported Q4 2024 and full-year 2024 results with 7.7% Q4 revenue growth.
2024-07-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.90%MSCI reports strong Q2 2024 financial results with record AUM and robust growth across segments.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade