MSI
Motorola Solutions, Inc.$486.11
Sell
Target $357.03
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Communication Equipment • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$486.11-26.6%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$357.03
(27% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$492.22
52 Week Low$359.36
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.18M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin51.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin30.2%
LTM EBIT Margin26.6%
LTM Operating Margin25.6%
LTM ROA12.5%
LTM ROE103.2%
LTM ROIC27.7%
LTM ROCE27.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$71.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$80.4B
Shares Outstanding166.00M
Total Debt (MM)$9.63B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.17B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$8.47B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth8.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR8.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR17.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR16.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$481.25
LTM EV/Revenue6.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit13.3x
LTM EV/EBIT25.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA22.8x
LTM P/E33.4x
LTM EV/FCF31.2x
LTM P/FCF28.0x
LTM P/TB7.6x
LTM P/B29.8x
Dividend Yield1.0%
Payout Ratio34.6%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $486.11 versus fair value $357.03 (-26.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Normalization of the LMR refresh cycle leading to a deceleration in organic product orders. Bear case centers on Moat erosion from technological disruption or low-cost competitors. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Record backlog of $15.7B provides high revenue visibility; AI-driven software adoption at $99/user/month expands margins; Silvus acquisition opens a high-growth defense pipeline.
Bear Case
Aggressive insider selling of $214M signals a valuation peak; debt-to-equity of 399.7% creates balance sheet strain; cash-conversion ratio has declined from 152% to 132%.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Normalization of the LMR refresh cycle leading to a deceleration in organic product orders. As the current wave of APX NEXT upgrades conclud...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
A material increase in interest expense or a credit rating outlook change due to the 399.7% debt-to-equity ratio. This would force a pivot f...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Motorola Solutions is relevant for analysis now because it is trading at a decade-high multiple while insiders are liquidating stock at an u...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion from technological disruption or low-cost competitors. If Axon or L3Harris successfully captures significant market share in th...
Concern: High
Leverage strain and declining cash conversion. A 399.7% debt-to-equity ratio leaves little room for error if operating cash flow growth fall...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed. While operational execution remains strong, the aggressive use of leverage to fund shareholder returns at...
Recent Activity
2026-02-12SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.67%Motorola Solutions reports record Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results with 12% revenue growth and $15.7 billion backlog
2025-10-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.85%Motorola Solutions reports record Q3 2025 revenue, earnings, and cash flow, raises full-year guidance
2025-05-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.46%Motorola Solutions reports Q1 2025 financial results
2025-02-14SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.99%Motorola Solutions reports Q4 and full-year 2024 financial results with record sales, earnings, and backlog.
2024-11-08SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.37%Motorola Solutions reports strong Q3 2024 results, raises full-year guidance
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$297
Bear
$421
Base
$497
Bull
$486