MTD
Mettler-Toledo International Inc.$1231.73
Sell
Target $1105.64
Report: Mar 13, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Diagnostics & Research • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$1231.73-10.2%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$1105.64
(10% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$1,525.17
52 Week Low$946.69
Avg. 3 Month Volume155K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin59.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin30.9%
LTM EBIT Margin27.8%
LTM Operating Margin27.3%
LTM ROA25.1%
LTM ROE-487.2%
LTM ROIC32.6%
LTM ROCE49.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$25.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$27.7B
Shares Outstanding20.61M
Total Debt (MM)$2.15B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$66.89M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$2.09B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth4.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR0.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR0.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR2.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$1,485.00
LTM EV/Revenue6.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit11.6x
LTM EV/EBIT24.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA22.3x
LTM P/E29.5x
LTM EV/FCF32.7x
LTM P/FCF30.2x
LTM P/TB9.5x
LTM P/B-1084.5x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $1231.73 versus fair value $1105.64 (-10.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Spinnaker program re-acceleration drives 4% FY2026 local-currency growth, addressing market concerns on tariff drag by validating organic execution amid automation trends. Bear case centers on Tariff escalation permanently impairs pricing power, compressing gross margins below 59.4% and ROIC from 32.6%. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
59.4% gross margins exceed peer median 52.6% by 680bps, supported by 5,600 patents and $1B service revenue from $3B installed base; Spinnaker and automation drive 4% growth with ROIC 32.6%; historical P/FCF 36.3x justifies premium.
Bear Case
Tariffs eroded operating margins 130bps to 27.3% with 190bps gross headwind; China growth low-single-digit amid pharmacopeia delays; $33.4M insider sales and institutional outflows signal conviction gap; leverage at 58% debt/assets with negative equity -$23.6M.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Spinnaker program re-acceleration drives 4% FY2026 local-currency growth, addressing market concerns on tariff drag by validating organic ex...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Onshoring Mexico facility offsets tariffs, restoring 59.8% gross margins and enabling margin expansion. Rationale: SternDrive and pricing ne...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent Q4 2025 earnings affirmed FY2026 4% growth despite tariffs, with stock at RSI 28.9 oversold and -14.6% three-year return vs sector +2...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Tariff escalation permanently impairs pricing power, compressing gross margins below 59.4% and ROIC from 32.6%.
Concern: Medium
Technological disruption erodes patent moat (5,600 assets), allowing low-cost rivals to capture share.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate: strong board independence 100% with med-tech expertise (Diggelmann ex-CEO Smith+Nephew/Roche), but low insider owne...
Recent Activity
2024-11-08SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.19%Mettler-Toledo reports Q3 2024 results with 1% sales growth and 4% adjusted EPS growth
2024-05-10SEC Filing (8-K)
+17.04%Mettler-Toledo reports Q1 2024 results with flat sales and 2% adjusted EPS growth
2022-02-11SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.00%Mettler-Toledo reports Q4 2021 results with 11% sales growth and 14% adjusted EPS growth
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$750
Bear
$989
Base
$1174
Bull
$1232