MU
Micron Technology, Inc.$461.73
Sell
Target $357.34
Report: Mar 13, 2026Technology • Semiconductors • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$461.73-22.6%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$357.34
(23% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$471.34
52 Week Low$61.54
Avg. 3 Month Volume39.44M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin58.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin63.8%
LTM EBIT Margin48.7%
LTM Operating Margin48.3%
LTM ROA27.7%
LTM ROE40.8%
LTM ROIC37.1%
LTM ROCE38.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$381.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$377.9B
Shares Outstanding1.13B
Total Debt (MM)$10.80B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$13.91B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-3.11B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth85.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR36.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR55.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR146.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$405.14
LTM EV/Revenue6.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit11.1x
LTM EV/EBIT13.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA10.2x
LTM P/E15.8x
LTM EV/FCF36.8x
LTM P/FCF37.1x
LTM P/TB3.8x
LTM P/B5.3x
Dividend Yield0.1%
Payout Ratio2.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $461.73 versus fair value $357.34 (-22.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on FY2026 Q3 Earnings and Gross Margin Guide Management has guided for a record 81% gross margin. Bear case centers on Cyclical Overcapacity and Margin Compression The mechanism of failure is the $25B FY2026 CapEx program. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
AI demand is structural and permanent, creating a 'Golden Age' for memory where HBM TAM reaches $100B by 2028. Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs) provide unprecedented revenue visibility and lock in pricing, preventing the commodity-driven crashes of previous cycles.
Bear Case
The $25B+ FY2026 CapEx plan is a classic pro-cyclical overreaction that will lead to a supply glut by 2027. Insiders are signaling a top, with $148M in net sales over the last 12 months and the CEO holding a negligible 0.1% stake.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
FY2026 Q3 Earnings and Gross Margin Guide Management has guided for a record 81% gross margin. Any miss or a guide for margin compression in...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
HBM4 Yield Ramp and Competitive Response If Samsung or SK Hynix successfully ramp HBM4 yields faster than anticipated, Micron's pricing powe...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Micron is relevant for analysis now because it is trading at a multi-decade valuation peak (8.8x P/B) just as it initiates its largest-ever...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Cyclical Overcapacity and Margin Compression The mechanism of failure is the $25B FY2026 CapEx program. If AI demand growth slows from its c...
Concern: Medium
Geopolitical and Supply Chain Concentration Micron's DRAM production is heavily concentrated in Taiwan. Any regional conflict or supply chai...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is rated as 'Adequate but Unaligned.' While the board is composed of high-quality semiconductor veterans (including ex-TSMC and...
Recent Activity
2026-01-27Analyst Target
+5.44%Firm: Mizuho Securities Price Target: $480.00 Price When Posted: $389.09 Implied Upside: +23.4%
2026-01-21SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.61%Micron Technology amends charter to eliminate officers' personal liability for duty of care breaches
2026-01-09Analyst Target
+5.53%Firm: Mizuho Securities Analyst: Vijay Rakesh Price Target: $390.00 Price When Posted: $327.02 Implied Upside: +19.3%
2025-12-18SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.21%Micron Technology reports record Q1 FY2026 revenue of $13.64 billion driven by AI demand
2025-12-12Analyst Target
-6.70%Firm: Stifel Nicolaus Price Target: $300.00 Price When Posted: $258.46 Implied Upside: +16.1%
Valuation Table
9.2/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$221
Bear
$357
Base
$782
Bull
$462