NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc.$85.50
Unclear
Target $85.69
Report: Mar 13, 2026Financial Services • Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$85.50+0.2%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$65.92
(23% below current)
Fair Value
$85.69
(0% above current)
Stop Loss
$64.84
(24% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$101.79
52 Week Low$64.84
Avg. 3 Month Volume4.38M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin63.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin38.0%
LTM EBIT Margin30.4%
LTM Operating Margin28.2%
LTM ROA5.8%
LTM ROE15.0%
LTM ROIC23.5%
LTM ROCE11.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$48.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$56.9B
Shares Outstanding568.44M
Total Debt (MM)$9.47B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$814.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$8.65B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth11.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR9.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR19.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR11.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$113.60
LTM EV/Revenue6.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit10.8x
LTM EV/EBIT22.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA18.1x
LTM P/E27.0x
LTM EV/FCF28.6x
LTM P/FCF24.3x
LTM P/TB4.7x
LTM P/B3.9x
Dividend Yield1.2%
Payout Ratio33.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $85.5 versus fair value $85.69 (0.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on AI Agentic Workforce and Product Integration Nasdaq's launch of an Agentic AI workforce and the integration of AI into Verafin and surveillance tools are expected to drive significant cross-sell wins. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion and Competitive Pricing Pressure Competitors like ICE and LSEG are tightening pricing on market data, and regulatory reforms (SEC Regulation NMS) may cap fees. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Nasdaq's transition to a SaaS-first model is accelerating, with 42 cross-sell wins and 10% ARR growth providing high earnings visibility. Deleveraging is ahead of schedule, with gross leverage hitting 2.9x and supporting a 10.7% 5-year dividend CAGR.
Bear Case
The competitive moat is eroding, as evidenced by an ROIC of 23.5% that trails the peer median of 28.3% and a negative incremental ROIC of -127.9% on recent capital spend. Regulatory scrutiny of market-data fees and SEC Regulation NMS updates threaten legacy high-margin revenue streams.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
AI Agentic Workforce and Product Integration Nasdaq's launch of an Agentic AI workforce and the integration of AI into Verafin and surveilla...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Tokenized Equity Trading Approval Nasdaq has filed with the SEC for a tokenized equity trading platform. Success here would open a new high-...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Nasdaq is relevant now because it has just completed its primary deleveraging phase post-Adenza, hitting its 2.9x leverage target ahead of s...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion and Competitive Pricing Pressure Competitors like ICE and LSEG are tightening pricing on market data, and regulatory reforms (S...
Concern: Medium
Fintech Enterprise Implementation Lags The back-weighted nature of large fintech deals (Adenza/Verafin) creates revenue variability. Delays...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, anchored by a board with deep fintech and capital allocation expertise, including Director Jeffery Yabuki (former Fis...
Recent Activity
2026-02-26Press Release
+5.48%Nasdaq Announces Mid-Month Open Short Interest Positions In Nasdaq Stocks As Of Settlement Date February 13, 2026
2025-07-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.91%Nasdaq reported Q2 2025 results with 13% revenue growth and over 100% EPS growth
2025-04-04Market Movement
-7.51%Market/Sector Move -7.51%
2025-04-03Market Movement
-5.76%Market/Sector Move -5.76%
2024-07-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.22%Nasdaq reported Q2 2024 financial results with 25% revenue growth and strong performance across all divisions
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$67
Bear
$93
Base
$117
Bull
$86