NEE
NextEra Energy, Inc.$91.81
Sell
Target $38.99
Report: Mar 13, 2026Utilities • Regulated Electric • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$91.81-57.5%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$38.99
(58% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$95.91
52 Week Low$61.72
Avg. 3 Month Volume9.81M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin62.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin62.7%
LTM EBIT Margin38.7%
LTM Operating Margin30.2%
LTM ROA3.4%
LTM ROE13.1%
LTM ROIC4.0%
LTM ROCE6.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$193.5B
Enterprise Value (MM)$286.3B
Shares Outstanding2.08B
Total Debt (MM)$95.62B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.81B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$92.81B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA5.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth10.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR9.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR20.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR16.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$93.27
LTM EV/Revenue10.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit16.8x
LTM EV/EBIT27.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA16.7x
LTM P/E28.3x
LTM EV/FCF89.2x
LTM P/FCF60.3x
LTM P/TB0.9x
LTM P/B3.5x
Dividend Yield2.4%
Payout Ratio68.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $91.81 versus fair value $38.99 (-57.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Data Center Hub Announcements Specific project wins for the 15-30 GW data center strategy could temporarily validate the market's growth narrative and provide a short-term boost to sentiment. Bear case centers on Interest Rate Persistence Higher-for-longer rates increase the cost of servicing 95.6 billion dollars in debt, directly eroding net margins and potentially forcing a dividend cut or growth slowdown. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The 30 GW renewables backlog and 15-30 GW data center hub strategy provide a multi-decade growth tailwind. FPL's new 4-year rate agreement secures a 10.95% midpoint ROE, supporting a 90-100 billion dollar investment plan.
Bear Case
Interest expense doubled to 4,572 million dollars in FY 2025, compressing net margins to 24.9%. Incremental ROIC is negative at -0.4%, indicating that the 44.1 billion dollars in recent CapEx is not generating returns above the 9.5% cost of capital.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Data Center Hub Announcements Specific project wins for the 15-30 GW data center strategy could temporarily validate the market's growth nar...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Duane Arnold Nuclear Restart Execution of the 615 MW restart is expected to contribute up to 0.16 dollars in annual EPS, serving as a key pr...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
NextEra Energy is at a critical juncture as it attempts to pivot toward AI-driven load growth while its interest coverage has deteriorated t...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Interest Rate Persistence Higher-for-longer rates increase the cost of servicing 95.6 billion dollars in debt, directly eroding net margins...
Concern: Medium
Regulatory and Legal Scrutiny Ongoing investigations into political ghost candidate schemes and the August 2025 derivative lawsuit could lea...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is cautious. While the board possesses deep industry expertise-including Audit Chair David Porges (former energy CEO...
Recent Activity
2025-07-23SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.09%NextEra Energy reports strong Q2 2025 financial results with 9.4% year-over-year adjusted EPS growth
2025-01-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.20%NextEra Energy reports record 2024 full-year results with 8.2% adjusted EPS growth
2024-06-11SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.50%NextEra Energy reaffirms 2024-2026 earnings guidance, introduces 2027 outlook
2023-10-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.99%NextEra Energy reports strong third-quarter 2023 financial results with adjusted earnings growth of approximately 10.8% through three quarters
2023-09-27Press Release
-8.23%Chesapeake Utilities Corporation To Acquire Florida City Gas
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade