NEM
Newmont Corporation$116.09
Unclear
Target $117.22
Report: Mar 08, 2026Basic Materials • Gold • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$116.09+1.0%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$90.17
(22% below current)
Fair Value
$117.22
(1% above current)
Stop Loss
$83.89
(28% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$134.88
52 Week Low$42.93
Avg. 3 Month Volume10.64M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin64.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin63.7%
LTM EBIT Margin52.5%
LTM Operating Margin48.4%
LTM ROA12.7%
LTM ROE21.7%
LTM ROIC24.6%
LTM ROCE23.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$117.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$115.7B
Shares Outstanding1.09B
Total Debt (MM)$5.59B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$7.65B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-2.06B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth21.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR23.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR80.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$137.37
LTM EV/Revenue5.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.9x
LTM EV/EBIT9.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.0x
LTM P/E16.6x
LTM EV/FCF11.4x
LTM P/FCF11.6x
LTM P/TB2.2x
LTM P/B3.5x
Dividend Yield0.9%
Payout Ratio15.6%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $116.09 versus fair value $117.22 (1.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Commercial production ramp-up at Ahafo North. Bear case centers on Lower-for-longer gold price environment. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Record free cash flow generation of $10.1B in FY2025 provides massive firepower for the $3B share repurchase program. Unhedged exposure to gold prices above $2,700/oz offers superior torque to a sustained bull market.
Bear Case
All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) are projected to spike to $1,680/oz in 2026, potentially eroding margins if gold prices soften. Insiders have been aggressive net sellers, offloading $5.7M in stock over the last 12 months with zero discretionary purchases.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Commercial production ramp-up at Ahafo North. This project is expected to contribute 300k oz of high-margin gold in 2026, validating managem...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Execution of the $3B share repurchase program. Ratable buybacks will provide a constant bid for the stock and accelerate EPS growth as the s...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Newmont is relevant at this moment because it has just completed its most significant leadership transition in six years while simultaneousl...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Lower-for-longer gold price environment. A sustained drop in gold prices below $2,000/oz would impair the high-cost Lihir and Yanacocha asse...
Concern: High
Execution failure at Tanami Expansion 2. Delays in the shaft lining or equipment installation would postpone the expected H2 2027 completion...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is positive on capital allocation but cautious on alignment. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: Vi...
Recent Activity
2026-01-30Analyst Target
-11.49%Firm: UBS Price Target: $160.00 Price When Posted: $117.25 Implied Upside: +36.5%
2025-10-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.23%Newmont reports Q3 2025 results with improved cost guidance and strong free cash flow.
2025-10-16Analyst Target
+5.01%Firm: UBS Price Target: $105.50 Price When Posted: $93.58 Implied Upside: +12.7%
2025-07-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.89%Newmont reported Q2 2025 results with record free cash flow of $1.7 billion and announced a $3.0 billion share repurchase program.
2025-07-15SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.71%Newmont reports Q3 2025 results with improved cost guidance and strong free cash flow.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$2
Bear
$114
Base
$138
Bull
$116