NKE
NIKE, Inc.$64.38
Sell
Target $36.99
Report: Mar 08, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Apparel - Footwear & Accessories • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$64.38-42.5%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$36.99
(43% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$80.17
52 Week Low$50.95
Avg. 3 Month Volume16.29M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin41.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin8.2%
LTM EBIT Margin6.5%
LTM Operating Margin6.5%
LTM ROA6.8%
LTM ROE18.4%
LTM ROIC10.2%
LTM ROCE11.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$78.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$82.5B
Shares Outstanding1.48B
Total Debt (MM)$11.28B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$6.97B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$4.31B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-5.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-1.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-20.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-21.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$75.56
LTM EV/Revenue1.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.3x
LTM EV/EBIT27.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA21.8x
LTM P/E31.0x
LTM EV/FCF33.3x
LTM P/FCF31.6x
LTM P/TB2.1x
LTM P/B5.6x
Dividend Yield3.0%
Payout Ratio93.6%
Executive SummarySituation: NIKE is navigating a leadership transition under CEO Elliott Hill (effective October 2024) amidst a severe cyclical downturn where revenue declined 9.8% YoY to $46.3 billion in FY2025. Debate: The market views this as a classic mean-reversion opportunity for a Cyclical Operator, but our analysis suggests the business model is structurally impaired by $1.5 billion in annualized tariff headwinds and a permanent loss of Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) pricing power. Conclusion: With operating margins collapsing to 6.5% TTM and a Net Liquidation Value of $0.00, the stock is significantly overvalued relative to its impaired earnings power; fair value is $36.99.
Bull Case
The 'Sport Offense' innovation pipeline (e.g., Vomero 18) successfully offsets the $4 billion decline in 'Classics' franchises; Tariff mitigation strategies reduce the $1.5 billion headwind to a negligible net impact.
Bear Case
Tariff headwinds are permanent and structural, preventing a return to double-digit margins; Specialized rivals (On, Hoka) have permanently captured the high-margin performance runner, leaving NIKE with lower-margin lifestyle volume.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
FY2026 Margin Miss: If operating margins fail to reclaim the 10% level by H2 FY2026, the market will re-rate the stock from a 'Cyclical Reco...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Converse Divestiture: Speculation regarding the sale of the Converse brand (down 30% in revenue) could provide a temporary liquidity pop but...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn: The $1.5 billion tariff headwind persists while consumer demand in Greater China (-17% revenue) fails to...
Concern: Medium
Balance sheet leverage during a trough: While Net Leverage is 1.1x, a prolonged earnings collapse could breach the 'Limits on Debt Secured b...
Recent Activity
2025-12-19SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.54%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Investor Contact: Media Contact: Paul Trussell Sandra Carreon-John investor.relations@nike.com media.relations@nike.com NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 SECOND QUARTER RESULTS BEAVERTON, Ore.,...
2025-10-01SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.41%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Investor Contact: Media Contact: Paul Trussell Jay Paavonpera investor.relations@nike.com media.relations@nike.com NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS BEAVERTON, Ore., Sept....
2025-06-27SEC Filing (8-K)
+15.19%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Investor Contact: Media Contact: Paul Trussell Virginia Rustique-Petteni investor.relations@nike.com media.relations@nike.com NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2025 FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR...
2025-03-21SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.46%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Investor Contact: Media Contact: Paul Trussell Virginia Rustique-Petteni investor.relations@nike.com media.relations@nike.com NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2025 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS BEAVERTON,...
2024-10-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.77%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Investor Contact: Media Contact: Paul Trussell Virginia Rustique-Petteni investor.relations@nike.com media.relations@nike.com NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2025 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS BEAVERTON,...
Valuation Table
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$46
Base
$63
Bull
$64