NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.$109.42
Unclear
Target $118.48
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Software - Application • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$109.42+8.3%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$91.14
(17% below current)
Fair Value
$118.48
(8% above current)
Stop Loss
$64.56
(41% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$211.48
52 Week Low$98.00
Avg. 3 Month Volume18.46M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin77.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin22.6%
LTM EBIT Margin17.0%
LTM Operating Margin13.7%
LTM ROA7.7%
LTM ROE15.4%
LTM ROIC21.6%
LTM ROCE16.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$109.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$108.0B
Shares Outstanding1.04B
Total Debt (MM)$2.40B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$3.73B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-1.32B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth20.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR22.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR51.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR73.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$196.29
LTM EV/Revenue8.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit10.5x
LTM EV/EBIT47.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA36.0x
LTM P/E62.6x
LTM EV/FCF23.6x
LTM P/FCF23.9x
LTM P/TB5.1x
LTM P/B8.4x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $109.42 versus fair value $118.48 (8.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Acceleration of Now Assist Monetization Success in converting the 1,700+ customers currently live on Now Assist into high-ACV multi-product deals will validate the AI expansion thesis. Bear case centers on AI Cannibalization of Seat-Based Pricing Generative AI agents could automate tasks previously performed by humans, leading customers to reduce their total license counts. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
ServiceNow becomes the 'AI Operating System' for the enterprise, where Now Assist features drive significantly higher ACV and decouple revenue growth from seat counts. Operating margins continue to expand as AI-driven internal efficiencies offset infrastructure costs.
Bear Case
Generative AI cannibalizes traditional seat-based licensing models, reducing the total number of human-operated licenses required. Gross margin erosion persists as the cost of AI compute outpaces the company's ability to raise prices.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Acceleration of Now Assist Monetization Success in converting the 1,700+ customers currently live on Now Assist into high-ACV multi-product...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Execution of $5 Billion Share Repurchase Program Aggressive buybacks will provide a floor for the stock price and offset dilution from stock...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
ServiceNow is relevant for analysis now because it is at the epicenter of the enterprise AI transition, and its recent stock price weakness...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
AI Cannibalization of Seat-Based Pricing Generative AI agents could automate tasks previously performed by humans, leading customers to redu...
Concern: Medium
Persistent Gross Margin Compression Rising costs for hyperscaler compute and AI infrastructure could permanently lower the company's profita...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is high-quality but characterized by low insider 'skin in the game.' The primary governance outcome tree is: 1. Status Quo (McDe...
Recent Activity
2026-02-11SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.52%Excerpt: | UNITED STATES | | SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION | | Washington, DC 20549 | _____________________ | FORM 8-K | | CURRENT REPORT | | Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of | | the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 | Date of report...
2026-02-05Analyst Target
-7.60%Firm: Truist Financial Price Target: $175.00 Price When Posted: $106.80 Implied Upside: +63.9%
2026-01-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.94%ServiceNow reports Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 financial results with record performance and authorizes additional share repurchase program.
2025-04-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+15.49%ServiceNow reports Q1 2025 financial results with strong growth across all metrics.
2025-04-04Market Movement
-6.77%Market/Sector Move -6.77%
Valuation Table
9.3/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$65
Bear
$94
Base
$129
Bull
$109