NTRS
Northern Trust Corporation$139.34
Buy
Target $233.22
Report: Mar 13, 2026Financial Services • Asset Management • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$139.34+67.4%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$139.34
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$233.22
(67% above current)
Stop Loss
$81.62
(41% below current)
Position Size
Full
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$157.60
52 Week Low$81.62
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.08M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin38.5%
LTM EBIT Margin28.9%
LTM Operating Margin28.9%
LTM ROA1.0%
LTM ROE13.1%
LTM ROIC1.9%
LTM ROCE1.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$25.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)N/A
Shares Outstanding187.49M
Total Debt (MM)$16.43B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$63.78B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-47.35B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-15.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-2.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR6.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR10.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR12.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$149.20
LTM EV/Revenue-2.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit-2.6x
LTM EV/EBIT-9.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA-6.9x
LTM P/E15.3x
LTM EV/FCF-4.5x
LTM P/FCF5.4x
LTM P/TB0.1x
LTM P/B2.0x
Dividend Yield2.2%
Payout Ratio35.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $139.34 versus fair value $233.22 (67.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of AI-Driven Productivity Savings Management has targeted 5% productivity savings for 2026. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion via Technological Disruption Low-cost fintech competitors could disrupt the custody market, forcing permanent fee compression and impairing Northern Trust's pricing power. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Full sizing and Long-Term (3+ Years) horizon.
Bull Case
Underlying fee growth of 7% remains strong despite headline revenue volatility; AI-driven productivity is expected to yield 5% expense savings by 2026; Management is committed to returning >100% of earnings to shareholders, supported by a $47.4 billion net cash position.
Bear Case
Operating margins compressed 320 basis points in FY2025 as SG&A growth outpaced revenue; Fee compression in the asset servicing business could offset productivity gains; Recent $35 million elder abuse lawsuit suggests potential lapses in fiduciary oversight.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Realization of AI-Driven Productivity Savings Management has targeted 5% productivity savings for 2026. Evidence of these savings hitting th...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Acceleration of Share Repurchases With $47.4 billion in net cash, the company has the capacity to exceed its pledge of returning >100% of ea...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Northern Trust is highly relevant now as it enters the execution phase of its 'One Northern Trust' strategy following a leadership reshuffle...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion via Technological Disruption Low-cost fintech competitors could disrupt the custody market, forcing permanent fee compression a...
Concern: Low
Fiduciary and Legal Risk The $35 million elder abuse lawsuit and recent FINRA settlements could signal systemic weaknesses in internal contr...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, anchored by a board with deep financial expertise, including directors with leadership backgrounds at PwC and America...
Recent Activity
2026-01-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.02%Northern Trust reported Q4 2025 net income of $466.0 million, earnings per diluted share of $2.42, marking strong year-end performance.
2024-10-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.02%Northern Trust reported Q3 2024 earnings with net income of $464.9M and EPS of $2.22.
2024-07-17SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.07%Northern Trust reported Q2 2024 earnings with net income of $896.1M and EPS of $4.34.
2023-10-18SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.61%Northern Trust reported Q3 2023 net income of $327.8 million, earnings per diluted share of $1.49, with resilient performance amid challenging interest rate environment.
2023-07-19SEC Filing (8-K)
+13.36%Northern Trust reported Q2 2023 net income of $331.8 million, earnings per diluted share of $1.56, with growth in trust fees and revenue.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$387
Bear
$233
Base
$498
Bull
$139