NWSA
News Corporation$24.03
Sell
Target $19.27
Report: Mar 07, 2026Communication Services • Entertainment • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$24.03-19.8%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$19.27
(20% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$31.61
52 Week Low$22.20
Avg. 3 Month Volume4.35M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin56.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin22.0%
LTM EBIT Margin16.6%
LTM Operating Margin10.0%
LTM ROA7.3%
LTM ROE13.4%
LTM ROIC20.0%
LTM ROCE11.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$13.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$14.6B
Shares Outstanding555.38M
Total Debt (MM)$2.85B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.05B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$797.00M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-12.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-5.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR20.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR57.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$32.40
LTM EV/Revenue1.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.0x
LTM EV/EBIT10.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA7.7x
LTM P/E12.0x
LTM EV/FCF22.6x
LTM P/FCF21.4x
LTM P/TB1.5x
LTM P/B1.6x
Dividend Yield0.8%
Payout Ratio9.9%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $24.03 versus fair value $19.27 (-19.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Dow Jones Investor Briefing (March 16, 2026). Bear case centers on Moat Erosion in Digital Real Estate. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Bulls argue that the 'Sum of the Parts' (SOTP) discount is excessive, with Dow Jones and REA Group alone worth more than the current market cap, and that AI licensing deals create a new high-margin revenue stream.
Bear Case
Bears contend that structural revenue contraction (-16.2% YoY) and the decline of legacy News Media make the company a value trap, further exacerbated by Murdoch family control and heavy insider selling.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Dow Jones Investor Briefing (March 16, 2026). This event is expected to provide detailed segment-level forecasts for the B2B business, which...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Acceleration of Share Buybacks. The company has $28.5M remaining under its 2025 program and expects to increase the pace in H2 FY2026, funde...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
News Corporation is at a critical juncture as it attempts to prove that its digital and AI licensing gains can finally outweigh the structur...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion in Digital Real Estate. Intensifying competition from CoStar's Homes.com and Zillow could permanently impair Realtor.com's pric...
Concern: High
Structural Decline of News Media. Continued weakness in print advertising and circulation could accelerate, leading to further impairments a...
Concern: Medium
The governance outcome tree is currently skewed toward the Status Quo. 1. Status Quo: The Murdoch family maintains control, and the SOTP dis...
Recent Activity
2026-02-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.06%News Corp provided daily buy-back notification for its Class A common stock repurchase program.
2026-02-03SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.57%News Corp updated its Class A common stock repurchase program notification.
2025-11-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.54%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document +Rule 3.8A Appendix 3C Notification of buy-back Information or documents not available now must be given to ASX as soon as available. Information and documents given to ASX become ASX’s property and may be made...
2025-10-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.73%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document +Rule 3.8A Appendix 3C Notification of buy-back Information or documents not available now must be given to ASX as soon as available. Information and documents given to ASX become ASX’s property and may be made...
2025-04-09Market Movement
+9.22%Market/Sector Move +9.22%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$22
Bull
$24