OKE
ONEOK, Inc.$85.60
Sell
Target $52.26
Report: Mar 11, 2026Energy • Oil & Gas Midstream • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$85.60-38.9%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$52.26
(39% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$100.57
52 Week Low$64.02
Avg. 3 Month Volume5.02M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin29.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin23.0%
LTM EBIT Margin18.4%
LTM Operating Margin16.9%
LTM ROA5.2%
LTM ROE15.5%
LTM ROIC7.7%
LTM ROCE10.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$56.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$89.7B
Shares Outstanding629.90M
Total Debt (MM)$32.82B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$78.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$32.74B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA4.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth55.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR14.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR29.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR12.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$87.90
LTM EV/Revenue2.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit9.1x
LTM EV/EBIT14.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA11.6x
LTM P/E16.8x
LTM EV/FCF36.6x
LTM P/FCF23.3x
LTM P/TB1.0x
LTM P/B2.5x
Dividend Yield4.6%
Payout Ratio76.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $85.6 versus fair value $52.26 (-38.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on FY2026 Earnings Guidance Miss: If commodity spreads (Waha-Katy) continue to narrow, ONEOK will likely miss its $8.1 billion EBITDA midpoint, forcing a market re-rating of its growth prospects. Bear case centers on Sustained Margin Compression: The mechanism is a permanent narrowing of regional natural gas and NGL price differentials, which reduces the profitability of ONEOK's integrated gathering and processing network. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Management successfully realizes over $500 million in synergies from the Magellan/EnLink integrations; the Eiger Express pipeline provides a stable, 10-year contracted cash flow floor; data center demand for natural gas power generation drives unexpected volume growth in the Mid-Continent and Permian basins.
Bear Case
ROIC remains stuck at 4.2%, well below the 9.5% cost of capital, leading to persistent value destruction; high leverage of 4.5x net debt/EBITDA prevents further accretive acquisitions; Bakken volume attrition and Waha-Katy spread compression erode core gathering and processing margins.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
FY2026 Earnings Guidance Miss: If commodity spreads (Waha-Katy) continue to narrow, ONEOK will likely miss its $8.1 billion EBITDA midpoint,...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Credit Rating Downgrade: With net leverage at 4.5x and ROIC at 4.2%, a failure to aggressively pay down debt could lead Moody's or S&P to mo...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
ONEOK is at a critical juncture as it transitions from a major build-out phase to an optimization phase. Recent insider buying at $66.00 con...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Sustained Margin Compression: The mechanism is a permanent narrowing of regional natural gas and NGL price differentials, which reduces the...
Concern: Medium
Bakken Volume Attrition: Loss of market share or producer activity in the Rocky Mountain region could lead to underutilization of the 22,600...
Concern: Medium
Governance is structurally strong with high board independence and a separated Chair/CEO role. However, the stewardship verdict is tempered...
Recent Activity
2026-02-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.08%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) okeq42025earningsrelease -more- Feb. 23, 2026 ONEOK Announces Higher Full-Year 2025 Earnings: Net Income up 11%, Adjusted EBITDA up 18% ONEOK Announces 2026 Financial Guidance TULSA, Okla. - Feb. 23, 2026 - ONEOK, Inc....
2025-08-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.17%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) okeq22025earningsrelease -more- Aug. 4, 2025 Analyst Contact: Megan Patterson 918-561-5325 Media Contact: Alicia Buffer 918-861-3749 ONEOK Announces Higher Second Quarter 2025 Earnings and Affirms 2025 Financial Guidance...
2025-04-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.49%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) okeq12025earningsrelease -more- April 29, 2025 Analyst Contact: Megan Patterson 918-561-5325 Media Contact: Brad Borror 918-588-7582 ONEOK Announces Higher First Quarter 2025 Earnings; Affirms 2025 Financial Guidance...
2025-04-03Market Movement
-7.64%Market/Sector Move -7.64%
2022-05-07Market Movement
-5.93%Market/Sector Move -5.93%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$14
Bear
$59
Bull
$86