ORCL
Oracle Corporation$163.09
Unclear
Target $158.14
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Software - Infrastructure • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$163.09-3.0%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$121.65
(25% below current)
Fair Value
$158.14
(3% below current)
Stop Loss
$82.04
(50% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$345.72
52 Week Low$118.86
Avg. 3 Month Volume26.89M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin67.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin47.8%
LTM EBIT Margin35.1%
LTM Operating Margin30.6%
LTM ROA8.1%
LTM ROE57.3%
LTM ROIC11.4%
LTM ROCE14.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$423.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$537.8B
Shares Outstanding2.87B
Total Debt (MM)$153.12B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$38.45B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$114.66B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth14.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR10.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR18.8%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR22.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$285.39
LTM EV/Revenue8.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit12.5x
LTM EV/EBIT23.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA17.6x
LTM P/E26.1x
LTM EV/FCF-21.7x
LTM P/FCF-17.1x
LTM P/TB2.4x
LTM P/B11.0x
Dividend Yield1.4%
Payout Ratio35.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $163.09 versus fair value $158.14 (-3.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Monetization of the $553 billion RPO backlog as new data center capacity is delivered. Bear case centers on Moat erosion due to technological disruption or aggressive pricing from hyperscalers. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Oracle's $553 billion RPO provides unprecedented revenue visibility through 2030, while its unique role in the AI inferencing market could double EPS by the end of the decade. The successful integration of Cerner and NetSuite demonstrates management's ability to scale high-margin vertical SaaS.
Bear Case
The AI build-out is unsustainably funded by debt, with total obligations exceeding $153 billion and negative free cash flow of $24.7 billion TTM. Heavy reliance on cash-burning startups like OpenAI creates a concentration risk that could trigger a credit rating downgrade.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Monetization of the $553 billion RPO backlog as new data center capacity is delivered. This addresses market concerns about the 'return on c...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Expansion of multi-cloud regions with AWS, Google, and Microsoft. This validates the variant perception that Oracle is an essential partner...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Oracle is at a critical juncture as it attempts to prove that its massive $21.2 billion annual capex spend will yield superior returns, maki...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion due to technological disruption or aggressive pricing from hyperscalers. This would permanently impair Oracle's pricing power a...
Concern: High
Credit rating downgrade due to high leverage and negative free cash flow. A downgrade from the current Baa2/BBB level would significantly in...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is characterized by a strong 'owner-manager' alignment due to Ellison's 40.6% stake, but is currently under pressure from credit...
Recent Activity
2026-02-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.95%Excerpt: Source: Main Body UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D. C. 20549 FORM 8-K CURRENT REPORT Pursuant to Section 13 OR 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event...
2026-02-04Analyst Target
-5.17%Firm: BMO Capital Price Target: $205.00 Price When Posted: $147.05 Implied Upside: +39.4%
2025-12-11SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.83%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) EX-99.1 Exhibit 99.1 For Immediate Release Contact: Ken Bond Deborah Hellinger Oracle Investor Relations Oracle Corporate Communications 1.650.607.0349 1.212.508.7935 ken.bond@oracle.com...
2025-11-21SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.66%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) EX-99.1 Exhibit 99.1 Contact: Ken Bond Deborah Hellinger Oracle Investor Relations Oracle Corporate Communications 1.650.607.0349 1.212.508.7935 ken.bond@oracle.com deborah.hellinger@oracle.com Oracle...
2025-10-17Analyst Target
-6.93%Firm: Barclays Price Target: $400.00 Price When Posted: $313.00 Implied Upside: +27.8%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$108
Bear
$204
Bull
$163