PCG
Pacific Gas & Electric Co.$18.05
Unclear
Target $18.69
Report: Mar 08, 2026Utilities • Regulated Electric • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$18.05+3.5%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$14.38
(20% below current)
Fair Value
$18.69
(4% above current)
Stop Loss
$10.37
(43% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Strategic (2-3 Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$19.16
52 Week Low$12.97
Avg. 3 Month Volume22.36M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin39.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin40.4%
LTM EBIT Margin21.9%
LTM Operating Margin19.0%
LTM ROA1.9%
LTM ROE8.2%
LTM ROIC3.0%
LTM ROCE4.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$38.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$99.0B
Shares Outstanding2.20B
Total Debt (MM)$61.34B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$972.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$60.36B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA6.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth2.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR4.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR17.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR9.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$22.29
LTM EV/Revenue4.0x
LTM EV/Gross Profit10.0x
LTM EV/EBIT18.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA9.8x
LTM P/E14.9x
LTM EV/FCF-32.2x
LTM P/FCF-12.6x
LTM P/TB0.3x
LTM P/B1.2x
Dividend Yield0.7%
Payout Ratio10.6%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $18.05 versus fair value $18.69 (3.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Completion of 1,900 miles undergrounding by 2027 at 25% lower cost validates safety execution, addressing market fear of wildfire liability baked into 0.3x P/TB discount; management commentary confirms $73B capex plan intact with no equi... Bear case centers on SB254 Phase 2 failure impairs $73B capex recovery, forcing cuts that slash rate base growth from 9% to flat and compress EPS below $1.50 midpoint. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
3.6GW data-center pipeline in final engineering drives rate base growth at 9%+ EPS CAGR through 2030 with no equity issuance needed; 1,000 miles undergrounded at 25% lower cost and 43% ignition reduction validate safety execution, supporting re-rating to peer P/B median 2.0x from 1.2x; O&M savings exceeding 2.5% annually via Lean system expand margins to 21.5% bull case.
Bear Case
Net debt of $60.4B at 6.0x EBITDA and 1.8x interest coverage risks downgrade if SB254 Phase 2 stalls cost recovery; negative FCF of -$3.07B TTM persists with capex at 47.3% revenue, diluting TBVPS growth; historical 0% EPS guidance hit rate over 5 years questions 10% growth narrative amid regulatory ROE scrutiny.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Completion of 1,900 miles undergrounding by 2027 at 25% lower cost validates safety execution, addressing market fear of wildfire liability...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Fitch/Moody's investment-grade upgrade following SB254 Phase 2 passage unlocks lower borrowing costs on $61.3B debt, easing 6.0x leverage; r...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
1.8GW data-center load online by 2030 reduces bills 1-2%/GW via rate base growth, confirming 9% EPS CAGR and offsetting flat traditional vol...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
SB254 Phase 2 failure impairs $73B capex recovery, forcing cuts that slash rate base growth from 9% to flat and compress EPS below $1.50 mid...
Concern: Medium
Transformer shortages extend lead times to 3 years, delaying data-center interconnections and undergrounding, eroding 3.6GW load catalyst.
Concern: Medium
CPUC ROE cut below 11.3% requested amid affordability push compresses 19.0% margins to peer-low levels.
Recent Activity
2022-06-10SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.59%PG&E Corporation provides investor day presentation
2022-02-10SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-7.40%FMR LLC files Schedule 13G/A for PG&E Corp. ownership
2021-08-10SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.60%PG&E Corporation provides investor day presentation
2021-03-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.13%PG&E Corporation appoints new CFO Christopher A. Foster
Valuation Table
8.1/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$109
Bear
$19
Base
$6
Bull
$18