PLD
Prologis, Inc.$137.85
Sell
Target $100.11
Report: Mar 11, 2026Real Estate • REIT - Industrial • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$137.85-27.4%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$100.11
(27% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$143.95
52 Week Low$85.35
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.49M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin74.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin81.5%
LTM EBIT Margin51.6%
LTM Operating Margin49.6%
LTM ROA3.4%
LTM ROE6.3%
LTM ROIC3.5%
LTM ROCE4.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$122.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$156.8B
Shares Outstanding929.33M
Total Debt (MM)$35.04B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.15B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$33.89B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA4.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth7.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR13.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR8.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-5.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$136.00
LTM EV/Revenue17.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit23.9x
LTM EV/EBIT34.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA21.9x
LTM P/E37.0x
LTM EV/FCF-338.6x
LTM P/FCF-265.4x
LTM P/TB1.2x
LTM P/B2.3x
Dividend Yield3.1%
Payout Ratio112.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $137.85 versus fair value $100.11 (-27.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of sustained negative Free Cash Flow in FY2026 reporting. Bear case centers on Interest Rate Sensitivity and Refinancing Risk. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The bull case rests on the 5.7 GW data center pipeline and 1.1 GW solar capacity, which bulls argue will transform Prologis into a high-growth infrastructure play. Additionally, the 18% lease mark-to-market provides a visible 800 million NOI cushion that should protect earnings even if market rents stagnate.
Bear Case
The bear case highlights that Prologis is destroying value, with an incremental ROIC of -6.1% and a net debt/EBITDA that has climbed to 4.7x. Furthermore, market rents in key regions like Southern California declined 6% in 2024, suggesting the 'bullwhip effect' of the pandemic is over and vacancy rates are set to rise from their historic lows.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Realization of sustained negative Free Cash Flow in FY2026 reporting. As the company continues its 5 billion annual development starts, the...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Leadership transition friction or strategic shift under Daniel Letter. Any departure from the Moghadam-era 'fortress balance sheet' strategy...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Prologis is relevant now because it is at the intersection of a major leadership change and a capital-intensive strategic pivot, while tradi...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Interest Rate Sensitivity and Refinancing Risk. With 35 billion in debt and interest coverage falling to 4.5x, sustained high rates will con...
Concern: Medium
Geopolitical and Trade Volatility. Exposure to China and global trade flows could impact occupancy in port-adjacent logistics hubs.
Concern: Medium
Governance is structurally sound with high board independence and financial expertise (Audit Chair Carl Webb), but stewardship is currently...
Recent Activity
2025-10-15SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.33%Prologis released Q3 2025 supplemental information with operations, development, strategic capital, and financial performance.
2025-08-19Analyst Target
+5.05%Firm: Mizuho Securities Analyst: Vikram Malhotra Price Target: $118.00 Price When Posted: $105.44 Implied Upside: +11.9%
2024-04-17SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.19%Prologis released Q1 2024 supplemental information detailing operations, development, strategic capital, and financial performance.
2022-05-10SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.26%Prologis proposed to acquire Duke Realty in an all-stock transaction valued at $61.68 per share, representing a 29% premium.
Valuation Table
8.1/10Decision Grade