PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.$137.19
Sell
Target $83.38
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Software - Infrastructure • Early-Stage HypergrowthSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$137.19-39.2%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$83.38
(39% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$207.52
52 Week Low$66.12
Avg. 3 Month Volume49.19M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin82.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin37.4%
LTM EBIT Margin36.8%
LTM Operating Margin31.6%
LTM ROA20.9%
LTM ROE25.7%
LTM ROIC29.1%
LTM ROCE25.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$349.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$348.7B
Shares Outstanding2.39B
Total Debt (MM)$229.34M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.42B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-1.19B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth56.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR32.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$198.71
LTM EV/Revenue77.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit94.6x
LTM EV/EBIT211.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA208.3x
LTM P/E215.3x
LTM EV/FCF166.0x
LTM P/FCF166.6x
LTM P/TB39.3x
LTM P/B47.4x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $137.19 versus fair value $83.38 (-39.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Revenue Growth Deceleration: Any quarterly report showing revenue growth falling below the 50% threshold will likely trigger a massive multiple compression as the hypergrowth premium evaporates. Bear case centers on Valuation Compression: The primary threat is a structural shift in market sentiment away from high-multiple AI stocks, which would lead to a rapid re-rating of Palantir's 77x EV/Sales multiple toward the peer median of 6.5x. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
AIP becomes the foundational operating system for Western AI infrastructure, driving 70-80% revenue growth through a defense super-cycle. High switching costs and the proprietary Ontology layer create a winner-take-all monopoly in mission-critical data integration.
Bear Case
The current 77x EV/Sales multiple is unsustainable and requires execution far beyond historical software benchmarks. Persistent 15.3% stock-based compensation dilution and $1.1 billion in insider selling signal that the founders do not believe in the current price level.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Revenue Growth Deceleration: Any quarterly report showing revenue growth falling below the 50% threshold will likely trigger a massive multi...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Insider Selling Exhaustion: Continued divestment by Karp and Thiel at the current rate of $1.1 billion per year may eventually exhaust the i...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Our differentiated view is that the market is fixated on top-line growth while underestimating the long-term value destruction of the compan...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Valuation Compression: The primary threat is a structural shift in market sentiment away from high-multiple AI stocks, which would lead to a...
Concern: Medium
Execution and Competitive Risk: Emergence of a technologically superior or better-integrated competitor, such as Databricks or a specialized...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is a Governance Outcome Tree: 1. Status Quo: Founders maintain absolute control via Class F shares, continuing high...
Recent Activity
2026-02-03SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.85%Palantir reports Q4 2025 U.S. commercial revenue growth of 137% Y/Y and issues FY 2026 revenue guidance of 61% Y/Y
2025-11-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.94%Palantir reports Q3 2025 revenue growth of 63% Y/Y with U.S. commercial revenue up 121% Y/Y, raising full-year guidance.
2025-08-05SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.85%Palantir reports Q2 2025 revenue growth of 48% Y/Y, raises full-year guidance to 45% Y/Y growth.
2025-05-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-12.05%Palantir reports Q1 2025 revenue growth of 39% Y/Y, raises full-year guidance to 36% Y/Y growth.
2025-04-09Market Movement
+19.00%Market/Sector Move +19.00%
Valuation Table
9.1/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$22
Bear
$58
Base
$90
Bull
$137