PM
Philip Morris International Inc.$169.70
Sell
Target $139.98
Report: Mar 11, 2026Consumer Defensive • Tobacco • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$169.70-17.5%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$139.98
(18% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$191.30
52 Week Low$142.11
Avg. 3 Month Volume5.26M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin67.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin41.9%
LTM EBIT Margin37.0%
LTM Operating Margin36.6%
LTM ROA16.8%
LTM ROE-103.7%
LTM ROIC26.1%
LTM ROCE37.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$257.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$301.3B
Shares Outstanding1.56B
Total Debt (MM)$48.84B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$4.87B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$43.96B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth7.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR8.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR9.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR7.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$194.30
LTM EV/Revenue7.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit11.0x
LTM EV/EBIT20.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA17.7x
LTM P/E22.7x
LTM EV/FCF28.3x
LTM P/FCF24.1x
LTM P/TB6.3x
LTM P/B-25.8x
Dividend Yield3.4%
Payout Ratio77.6%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $169.7 versus fair value $139.98 (-17.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Deceleration in US ZYN shipment growth as inventory normalizes and competition from Altria's 'on!' brand intensifies. Bear case centers on Moat erosion in the nicotine pouch segment due to destructive pricing from rivals. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Smoke-free products reach 50% of revenue by 2027, driving further margin expansion; FDA approvals for ZYN Ultra and IQOS ILUMA in the US unlock a massive new growth vertical.
Bear Case
Negative incremental ROIC of -477.8% signals capital-intensive growth with poor returns; intensifying competition in nicotine pouches leads to a price war, compressing the current 67.1% gross margin.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Deceleration in US ZYN shipment growth as inventory normalizes and competition from Altria's 'on!' brand intensifies. This will challenge th...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Japan excise tax hikes impacting IQOS volumes. Two-step tax increases in April and October 2026 are expected to cause shipment volatility an...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Philip Morris is at a critical juncture where the 'honeymoon phase' of the Swedish Match acquisition is ending, and the company must now pro...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat erosion in the nicotine pouch segment due to destructive pricing from rivals. If Altria or BTI successfully use promotions to flip ZYN...
Concern: Medium
Regulatory backlash against flavored nicotine products in the US and EU. A ban on flavored pouches would eliminate a significant portion of...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is 'Adequate but De-risking'. The governance structure is sound, with high board independence and a separate Chairma...
Recent Activity
2026-03-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.22%Philip Morris International declares $1.47 per share quarterly dividend payable April 13, 2026
2025-07-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.43%PMI reports Q2 2025 results with strong smoke-free business growth and raises full-year guidance
2025-02-06SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.95%PMI reports 2024 full-year results with 9.3% adjusted EPS growth and strong smoke-free performance
2024-10-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.47%Philip Morris International reported Q3 2024 results with strong performance across all regions and raised full-year guidance for adjusted diluted EPS to 14-15% growth excluding currency.
2022-02-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.34%PMI presents at 2022 CAGNY conference on smoke-free transformation and financial outlook
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade