PODD
Insulet Corporation$238.82
Unclear
Target $258.88
Report: Mar 13, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Devices • Early-Stage HypergrowthSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$238.82+8.4%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$199.14
(17% below current)
Fair Value
$258.88
(8% above current)
Stop Loss
$218.00
(9% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Strategic
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$354.88
52 Week Low$205.11
Avg. 3 Month Volume992K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin71.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin18.1%
LTM EBIT Margin14.7%
LTM Operating Margin17.5%
LTM ROA7.5%
LTM ROE17.4%
LTM ROIC14.6%
LTM ROCE15.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$14.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$15.0B
Shares Outstanding70.36M
Total Debt (MM)$949.20M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$716.10M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$233.10M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth30.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR27.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR69.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR268.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$357.25
LTM EV/Revenue5.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.7x
LTM EV/EBIT37.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA30.7x
LTM P/E59.8x
LTM EV/FCF42.9x
LTM P/FCF42.2x
LTM P/TB4.9x
LTM P/B9.7x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $238.82 versus fair value $258.88 (8.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Omnipod 6 Launch and Sensor Integration The launch of the next-generation Omnipod 6 and integration with Abbott's Libre 3 Plus sensor will expand the addressable market and reinforce the technological moat. Bear case centers on GLP-1 TAM Erosion The primary threat is that GLP-1 receptor agonists significantly delay the need for insulin therapy in Type 2 patients, shrinking Insulet's primary growth segment. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Omnipod 5 adoption in the Type 2 market is a massive, under-appreciated tailwind, with 40% of new starts coming from this segment. Gross margins of 71.6% and a Rule of 40 score of 48.2 indicate elite-level unit economics and scaling efficiency.
Bear Case
GLP-1 therapies may delay the progression to insulin therapy, potentially shrinking the long-term TAM. High leadership turnover in 2025 creates execution risk during a critical global manufacturing ramp-up.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Omnipod 6 Launch and Sensor Integration The launch of the next-generation Omnipod 6 and integration with Abbott's Libre 3 Plus sensor will e...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
First Quarter of Positive GAAP Net Income (Post-Tax Reversal) Achieving a clean quarter of positive net income without one-time tax adjustme...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Insulet is highly relevant at this moment due to the recent completion of its leadership overhaul and the grand opening of its Malaysia manu...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
GLP-1 TAM Erosion The primary threat is that GLP-1 receptor agonists significantly delay the need for insulin therapy in Type 2 patients, sh...
Concern: Medium
Execution Failure at Global Manufacturing Sites Failure to successfully ramp up production at the Malaysia and Costa Rica facilities could l...
Concern: Medium
The Governance Outcome Tree suggests three paths: 1. Status Quo: The McEvoy team executes the Malaysia/Costa Rica ramp, driving margins to 2...
Recent Activity
2025-11-21Analyst Target
+5.84%Firm: BTIG Price Target: $380.00 Price When Posted: $312.89 Implied Upside: +21.4%
2025-08-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.47%Insulet reports Q2 2025 revenue increase of 32.9% year-over-year
2025-05-09SEC Filing (8-K)
+20.88%Insulet reports first quarter 2025 revenue increase of 29% year-over-year, raises full year guidance
2025-04-09Market Movement
+7.16%Market/Sector Move +7.16%
2024-11-08SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.40%Insulet reports Q3 2024 revenue increase of 26% year-over-year (25% constant currency), raising full year guidance
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade