POOL
Pool Corporation$218.05
Unclear
Target $235.88
Report: Mar 08, 2026Industrials • Industrial - Distribution • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$218.05+8.2%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$181.45
(17% below current)
Fair Value
$235.88
(8% above current)
Stop Loss
$210.67
(3% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional (12-24 Months)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$345.00
52 Week Low$197.13
Avg. 3 Month Volume834K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin29.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin11.1%
LTM EBIT Margin10.1%
LTM Operating Margin11.0%
LTM ROA11.2%
LTM ROE31.9%
LTM ROIC17.2%
LTM ROCE19.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$7.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$8.9B
Shares Outstanding36.78M
Total Debt (MM)$1.54B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$104.96M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.43B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-0.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-5.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-17.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-16.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$278.14
LTM EV/Revenue1.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.6x
LTM EV/EBIT16.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA15.2x
LTM P/E18.3x
LTM EV/FCF28.7x
LTM P/FCF24.0x
LTM P/TB2.8x
LTM P/B6.3x
Dividend Yield2.4%
Payout Ratio45.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $218.05 versus fair value $235.88 (8.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Q1 2026 earnings confirming low-single-digit sales growth and maintenance >64% share, validating resilient base and inventory drawdown benefits amid 60k construction stabilization. Bear case centers on Prolonged 'lower-for-longer' downturn with construction <60k units erodes discretionary sales (36% revenue), pressuring revenue flatline and SG&A leverage. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Maintenance resilience at 64% of sales with 29.7% gross margins via pricing/private label; POOL360 at 15% digital penetration accelerates as construction normalizes above 60k units; $530M shareholder returns ($341M buybacks) at 16.0% net yield support mid-cycle ROIC recovery to 19.6%.
Bear Case
SG&A up 3.6% YoY to 18.8% erodes op margin to 11.0%; inventory $1.45B (+13%) risks liquidation if discretionary weakens further; debt $1.54B at 1.67x leverage with OCF conversion 90% limits flexibility amid 11.7% short interest.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Q1 2026 earnings confirming low-single-digit sales growth and maintenance >64% share, validating resilient base and inventory drawdown benef...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
New sales centers (5-8 planned) and acquisitions ($25-50M) expanding to 460+ locations, leveraging network density for share gains as peers...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
POOL trades at trough 16.4x EV/EBITDA amid bearish sentiment (11.7% short interest, -38% 3Y return vs XLI +69.5%), making it timely as macro...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Prolonged 'lower-for-longer' downturn with construction <60k units erodes discretionary sales (36% revenue), pressuring revenue flatline and...
Concern: Medium
Balance sheet strain from debt-funded buybacks ($341M FY2025) as OCF conversion falls to 90%, risking covenant breach if EBITDA contracts fu...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate: strong track record (Arvan $1.1B exit) and independent board (89%) with distribution expertise (Perez de la Mesa 20...
Recent Activity
2026-02-19SEC Filing (8-K)
-14.48%Pool Corporation reports 2025 results with stable sales and provides 2026 guidance
2025-08-13SEC Filing (SC 13G)
+5.72%Wellington Management Group LLP and affiliates report 5.9% ownership in Pool Corporation as of June 30, 2025
2025-04-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.66%Pool Corporation reports Q1 2025 results with 4% sales decline but confirms annual guidance
2024-10-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.60%Pool Corporation reports Q3 2024 results with 3% sales decline and maintains annual guidance
2024-07-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.01%Pool Corporation reports Q2 2024 results with 5% sales decline but confirms annual guidance
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$255
Base
$340
Bull
$218