PPG
PPG Industries, Inc.$104.08
Unclear
Target $98.88
Report: Mar 13, 2026Basic Materials • Chemicals - Specialty • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$104.08-5.0%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Low
Entry Target
$76.06
(27% below current)
Fair Value
$98.88
(5% below current)
Stop Loss
$90.24
(13% below current)
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$133.43
52 Week Low$90.24
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.26M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin41.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin17.7%
LTM EBIT Margin14.3%
LTM Operating Margin13.5%
LTM ROA7.2%
LTM ROE20.8%
LTM ROIC15.8%
LTM ROCE14.3%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$23.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$29.6B
Shares Outstanding223.49M
Total Debt (MM)$7.90B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.16B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$5.73B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth0.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-3.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR10.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR17.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$126.25
LTM EV/Revenue1.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.5x
LTM EV/EBIT13.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA10.6x
LTM P/E15.2x
LTM EV/FCF25.5x
LTM P/FCF20.5x
LTM P/TB1.7x
LTM P/B3.0x
Dividend Yield2.6%
Payout Ratio39.9%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $104.08 versus fair value $98.88 (-5.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Completion of US/Canada Architectural Strategic Review A sale or spin-off of this 2 billion dollar revenue unit would transform PPG into a higher-margin specialty chemicals pure-play, likely triggering a multiple re-rating toward the 11.... Bear case centers on Moat Erosion in Automotive Refinish Prolonged distributor destocking and a shift toward lower-cost alternatives could permanently impair PPG's pricing power in this high-margin segment. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
PPG's aerospace franchise is a high-margin crown jewel with a widening moat due to capacity debottlenecking and 50+ new AI-optimized product launches. Furthermore, the expected 2 billion dollars in proceeds from architectural divestitures could fund significant, value-accretive share repurchases.
Bear Case
The company faces structural declines in DIY paint demand and persistent destocking in the automotive refinish market that may not normalize until late 2026. Additionally, a negative tangible book value of -0.80 dollars per share and 7.9 billion dollars in total debt leave the company with no valuation floor in a downturn.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Completion of US/Canada Architectural Strategic Review A sale or spin-off of this 2 billion dollar revenue unit would transform PPG into a h...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Aerospace Capacity Expansion Ramp-Up The commissioning of the 380 million dollar sealants and coatings facility will address current capacit...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
PPG is relevant for analysis now because it is at a strategic crossroads, having just appointed a new CFO and initiated a massive portfolio...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion in Automotive Refinish Prolonged distributor destocking and a shift toward lower-cost alternatives could permanently impair PPG...
Concern: High
Environmental and PFAS Litigation As a legacy chemical manufacturer, PPG faces ongoing claims related to 'forever chemicals' that could exce...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is currently rated as adequate for maintenance but not exceptional for compounding. The board is a significant strength, led by...
Recent Activity
2025-10-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.87%PPG reports third quarter 2025 financial results with record earnings and organic growth
2025-07-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.33%PPG reports second quarter 2025 financial results with organic growth and margin improvement
2025-01-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.00%PPG reports Q4 2024 and full-year 2024 financial results with divestitures and margin improvement
2024-09-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.25%PPG announces executive leadership changes with Kevin Braun becoming senior vice president of operations
2023-01-20SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.99%PPG reports Q4 2022 and full-year 2022 financial results with margin recovery and record sales
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade