PSKY
Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock$11.18
Sell
Target $7.95
Report: Mar 07, 2026Communication Services • Entertainment • Turnaround CandidateSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$11.18-28.9%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$7.95
(29% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$20.86
52 Week Low$8.62
Avg. 3 Month Volume11.53M
Efficiency
LTM Gross MarginN/A
LTM EBITDA MarginN/A
LTM EBIT MarginN/A
LTM Operating MarginN/A
LTM ROAN/A
LTM ROEN/A
LTM ROICN/A
LTM ROCEN/A
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$10.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$21.6B
Shares Outstanding1.11B
Total Debt (MM)$14.81B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$3.27B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$11.53B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDAN/A
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-51.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-22.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-28.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-42.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$13.50
LTM EV/RevenueN/A
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.8x
LTM EV/EBIT27.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA22.3x
LTM P/E-716.3x
LTM EV/FCFN/A
LTM P/FCFN/A
LTM P/TB0.3x
LTM P/B0.9x
Dividend Yield2.2%
Payout Ratio64.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $11.18 versus fair value $7.95 (-28.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is partial. Debate: Bull case depends on Warner Bros. Bear case centers on Existential Liquidity and Solvency Risk: The 'race against time' where linear TV cash flows evaporate before DTC reaches scale, leading to a covenant breach. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The Ellison-Shell leadership team successfully integrates WBD, realizing $3 billion in annual synergies and creating a streaming entity with the scale to challenge Netflix. The UFC partnership and HBO library consolidation drive Paramount+ to domestic profitability by late 2026.
Bear Case
The $79 billion post-merger debt load leads to a liquidity crisis as linear TV advertising declines accelerate beyond 12% annually. The company breaches its 4.5x leverage covenant, forcing a dilutive equity raise or a fire-sale of core studio assets.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Warner Bros. Discovery Merger Closing: A definitive agreement would confirm the $111 billion deal, but would also lock in the $79 billion de...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
DTC Profitability Inflection: Management has guided for domestic Paramount+ profitability in 2025. Achieving this would validate the streami...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
PSKY is relevant at this moment due to the high-volume rally following the WBD 'superior proposal' determination, which has created a tempor...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Existential Liquidity and Solvency Risk: The 'race against time' where linear TV cash flows evaporate before DTC reaches scale, leading to a...
Concern: High
Linear TV Advertising Collapse: A faster-than-expected decline in legacy advertising revenue.
Concern: Medium
The governance outcome tree presents three paths: 1. Status Quo: The WBD merger closes, but leverage remains at 8x, leading to a slow equity...
Recent Activity
2026-03-03SEC Filing (DFAN14A)
-6.67%Paramount Skydance Corporation posts social media update on Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
2026-02-27SEC Filing (DFAN14A)
+20.84%Paramount confirms Warner Bros. Discovery board's determination of superior proposal
2026-02-26SEC Filing (DFAN14A)
+10.04%Paramount comments on Warner Bros. Discovery board's determination of superior proposal
2025-12-17SEC Filing (DFAN14A)
-5.42%Paramount affirms commitment to superior $30 per share all-cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
2025-11-12Analyst Target
-6.99%Firm: Bernstein Price Target: $12.00 Price When Posted: $16.74 Implied Downside: -28.3%
Valuation Table
7.1/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$11
Base
$21
Bull
$11