PTC
PTC Inc.$161.27
Unclear
Target $145.43
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Software - Application • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$161.27-9.8%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$111.87
(31% below current)
Fair Value
$145.43
(10% below current)
Stop Loss
$115.44
(28% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Strategic
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$219.69
52 Week Low$133.38
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.13M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin84.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin43.3%
LTM EBIT Margin38.5%
LTM Operating Margin38.0%
LTM ROA12.9%
LTM ROE22.5%
LTM ROIC52.4%
LTM ROCE21.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$17.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$18.1B
Shares Outstanding119.33M
Total Debt (MM)$1.38B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$209.74M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.17B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth23.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR13.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR26.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR32.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$204.83
LTM EV/Revenue6.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.5x
LTM EV/EBIT16.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA14.6x
LTM P/E20.7x
LTM EV/FCF20.4x
LTM P/FCF19.1x
LTM P/TB7.7x
LTM P/B4.4x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $161.27 versus fair value $145.43 (-9.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Completion of Kepware and ThingWorx Divestiture This $600 million cash infusion will allow PTC to further de-lever and fund its aggressive share repurchase program, while removing the 'IoT distraction' from the narrative. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion from Competitive Disruption Increased competitive intensity from Autodesk and Siemens, particularly in the European industrial sector, could impair PTC's pricing power and lead to permanent market share loss. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Elite 31.4% FCF margins and 52.4% ROIC demonstrate a high-quality compounding engine; SaaS pricing lift of 1.5x-2.5x provides a clear path for organic ARR growth; aggressive $1.1B+ buyback program in FY2026 will significantly reduce share count.
Bear Case
Persistent insider selling ($11.9M in 12 months) and zero purchases suggest management sees limited near-term upside; AI revenue contribution remains immaterial despite heavy narrative focus; macro-driven ARR guidance cuts indicate vulnerability in the European industrial sector.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Completion of Kepware and ThingWorx Divestiture This $600 million cash infusion will allow PTC to further de-lever and fund its aggressive s...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Execution of $1.1B-$1.3B Share Repurchase Program Management intends to return a significant portion of FCF and divestiture proceeds to shar...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
PTC is at a critical juncture as it completes its transition to a pure-play SaaS model and executes a massive capital return program, making...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion from Competitive Disruption Increased competitive intensity from Autodesk and Siemens, particularly in the European industrial...
Concern: Medium
Lag in AI Revenue Realization If the heavy R&D investment in AI-driven features (16.7% of revenue) does not translate into measurable SaaS p...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate but lacks deep alignment. While the capital allocation is disciplined and the board is independent, the lack of sign...
Recent Activity
2025-11-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.44%PTC reported Q4 and full year 2025 results with record cash flow and announced divestiture of Kepware and ThingWorx businesses.
2025-07-31SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.07%PTC reported strong Q3 FY2025 results with significant revenue growth and raised full-year guidance.
2025-02-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.56%PTC Inc. reports Q1 FY2025 results with 11% constant currency ARR growth and 27% operating cash flow growth.
2023-11-02SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.35%PTC reported Q4 and full year 2023 financial results with strong ARR and cash flow growth.
2022-11-03SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.43%PTC delivered solid Q4 and FY 2022 results with ARR growth and strong cash flow performance.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$101
Bear
$141
Base
$174
Bull
$161