QCOM
QUALCOMM Incorporated$141.03
Buy
Target $262.65
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Semiconductors • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$141.03+86.2%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$141.03
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$262.65
(86% above current)
Stop Loss
$101.47
(28% below current)
Position Size
Full
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$205.95
52 Week Low$120.80
Avg. 3 Month Volume11.23M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin55.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin33.0%
LTM EBIT Margin29.5%
LTM Operating Margin27.1%
LTM ROA10.1%
LTM ROE21.6%
LTM ROIC34.6%
LTM ROCE29.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$137.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$145.0B
Shares Outstanding1.07B
Total Debt (MM)$14.82B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$7.21B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$7.61B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth10.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR1.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-1.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-21.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$161.50
LTM EV/Revenue3.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.9x
LTM EV/EBIT10.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA9.8x
LTM P/E25.6x
LTM EV/FCF11.2x
LTM P/FCF10.6x
LTM P/TB3.7x
LTM P/B6.0x
Dividend Yield2.7%
Payout Ratio70.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $141.03 versus fair value $262.65 (86.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Automotive Revenue Acceleration: Guidance for Q2 FY2026 indicates >35% YoY growth in automotive, validating the conversion of the $45B design-win pipeline. Bear case centers on ARM License Termination: If ARM successfully terminates Qualcomm's architecture license, the company would be forced to halt shipments of its custom Oryon CPUs, crippling its AI PC and Data Center strategies. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Full sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
Automotive design-win pipeline of $45 billion provides multi-year revenue visibility; 34.6% ROIC demonstrates superior capital efficiency; 100% FCF return policy has reduced share count by 5.6% CAGR since 2021.
Bear Case
Loss of Apple modem business (30% of 2025 iPhone models) creates a significant revenue hole; ARM litigation threatens the custom Oryon CPU roadmap; 46% revenue exposure to China introduces geopolitical risk.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Automotive Revenue Acceleration: Guidance for Q2 FY2026 indicates >35% YoY growth in automotive, validating the conversion of the $45B desig...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
ARM Litigation Settlement: A resolution of the architecture license dispute would remove the primary existential overhang on the custom Oryo...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Qualcomm is at a critical juncture as it reports record automotive revenues while the market prices in a 'worst-case' ARM litigation outcome...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
ARM License Termination: If ARM successfully terminates Qualcomm's architecture license, the company would be forced to halt shipments of it...
Concern: Medium
China Geopolitical Exposure: With 46% of revenue derived from China, any escalation in trade tensions or export curbs could permanently impa...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, anchored by a board with deep M&A and financial expertise (e.g., Irene Rosenfeld and Jeffrey Henderson). While inside...
Recent Activity
2026-02-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.46%Qualcomm announces Q1 FY2026 financial results with record revenues
2025-07-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.73%Qualcomm announces Q3 FY2025 financial results with continued growth
2025-05-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.92%Qualcomm reports Q2 FY2025 revenues of $11.0B with 17% YoY growth
2024-08-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.37%Qualcomm reports Q3 FY2024 revenues of $9.4B with 11% YoY growth
2024-07-17Analyst Target
-8.61%Firm: HSBC Analyst: Frank Lee Price Target: $200.00 Price When Posted: $209.64 Implied Downside: -4.6%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$147
Bear
$239
Base
$297
Bull
$141