RJF
Raymond James Financial, Inc.$152.57
Sell
Target $128.53
Report: Mar 13, 2026Financial Services • Financial - Capital Markets • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$152.57-15.8%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$128.53
(16% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$177.66
52 Week Low$117.57
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.40M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin98.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin20.3%
LTM EBIT Margin18.9%
LTM Operating Margin18.9%
LTM ROA2.4%
LTM ROE16.9%
LTM ROIC3.6%
LTM ROCE3.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$28.5B
Enterprise Value (MM)$20.1B
Shares Outstanding197.10M
Total Debt (MM)$5.10B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$13.57B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-8.47B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-2.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth6.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR9.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR8.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR12.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$187.00
LTM EV/Revenue1.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit1.4x
LTM EV/EBIT7.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA6.9x
LTM P/E13.6x
LTM EV/FCF14.3x
LTM P/FCF20.4x
LTM P/TB0.3x
LTM P/B2.3x
Dividend Yield1.4%
Payout Ratio19.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $152.57 versus fair value $128.53 (-15.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Q2 FY2026 earnings confirming >20% adjusted pretax margin would refute bear thesis on expense growth outpacing revenue, validating moat durability amid 8% non-comp rise. Bear case centers on Moat erosion from PE-backed roll-ups capturing advisor teams, impairing pricing power and client retention. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Record $1.73T client assets and 8,943 advisors with $407M recruiting production support 8-10% growth; net cash $9.5B funds $4B buybacks yielding 23.3%; AI investments and GreensLedge M&A enhance moat.
Bear Case
Revenue growth slowed to 6.9% TTM vs 12.1% 5-year average; margins compressed 130bps to 19.3% missing >20% target on 8% non-comp growth; FCF -37.6% YoY to $1.40B with ROIC 3.6% < WACC; insiders sold $23.5M.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Q2 FY2026 earnings confirming >20% adjusted pretax margin would refute bear thesis on expense growth outpacing revenue, validating moat dura...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Raymond James Financial's revenue grew 9.7% YoY to $14.07B on record client assets of $1.73T, but operating margins contracted 130 basis poi...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent Q1 FY2026 record $4.18B revenue beat (+9.6%) drove gains, but margin scrutiny and insider sales heighten relevance now.
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat erosion from PE-backed roll-ups capturing advisor teams, impairing pricing power and client retention.
Concern: Medium
Regulatory NII pressure and competition compress growth -3% and margins -100bps to $174.72/share.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship adequate but misaligned: strong board independence and oversight (9 Audit, 4 Risk meetings FY2025) offset by low 0.58% insider o...
Recent Activity
2024-10-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.31%Raymond James reports record fiscal 2024 results with $12.82 billion net revenues
2024-07-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.16%Raymond James reports fiscal third quarter 2024 results with record client assets
2022-10-27SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.58%Raymond James Financial reported record fiscal 2022 results with $11.0 billion in net revenues and $1.51 billion in net income available to common shareholders.
2022-04-29Analyst Target
-6.32%Firm: Raymond James Price Target: $130.07 Price When Posted: $67.71 Implied Upside: +92.1%
2022-03-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.36%Raymond James Financial declares quarterly dividend of $0.34 per share
Valuation Table
9.0/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$175
Bear
$199
Base
$222
Bull
$153