ROK
Rockwell Automation, Inc.$387.83
Sell
Target $285.93
Report: Mar 13, 2026Industrials • Industrial - Machinery • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$387.83-26.3%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$285.93
(26% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$438.72
52 Week Low$215.00
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.00M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin50.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin19.1%
LTM EBIT Margin15.3%
LTM Operating Margin14.0%
LTM ROA8.9%
LTM ROE27.7%
LTM ROIC21.5%
LTM ROCE17.3%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$40.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$43.6B
Shares Outstanding112.30M
Total Debt (MM)$3.68B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$444.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$3.24B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth5.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR2.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-0.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-1.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$436.56
LTM EV/Revenue5.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit10.1x
LTM EV/EBIT33.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA26.6x
LTM P/E40.7x
LTM EV/FCF35.3x
LTM P/FCF32.7x
LTM P/TB6.1x
LTM P/B10.8x
Dividend Yield1.5%
Payout Ratio60.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $387.83 versus fair value $285.93 (-26.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Dissolution of the Sensia Joint Venture. Bear case centers on Moat erosion due to geopolitical and cybersecurity risks. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Rockwell is the premier 'pure-play' beneficiary of U.S. factory reshoring and labor shortages, with a $2 billion investment plan set to expand capacity. High-margin software ARR is growing at high single digits, potentially re-rating the business as a technology compounder.
Bear Case
The valuation is extreme at 45x P/E for a cyclical industrial business. Operating margins are compressing due to a surge in R&D spend (8.1% of revenue) and tariff-related cost pass-throughs that diluted margins by 30 basis points in the most recent quarter.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Dissolution of the Sensia Joint Venture. This move reconsolidates the process automation business under full Rockwell control, simplifying t...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Opening of the New Berlin 'Factory of the Future'. This facility is a cornerstone of the $2 billion U.S. investment plan and will serve as a...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Rockwell is at a critical juncture as it attempts to prove that its massive R&D and CapEx investments can translate into margin expansion fo...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat erosion due to geopolitical and cybersecurity risks. The U.S. government is investigating Rockwell's Dalian, China facility for potenti...
Concern: Medium
Tariff-related margin dilution. Ongoing trade tensions and potential new tariffs act as a 'tax' on the supply chain, which Rockwell has stru...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is generally positive, but the lack of insider buying is a significant red flag. The governance outcome tree suggest...
Recent Activity
2026-02-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.38%Rockwell Automation reports strong Q1 FY2026 results with double-digit sales growth and raised EPS guidance
2025-08-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.01%Rockwell Automation reports Q3 2025 results with 5% sales growth and raises fiscal 2025 guidance
2025-05-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.90%Rockwell Automation reports Q2 2025 results with 6% sales decline and updates fiscal 2025 guidance
2024-11-07SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.75%Rockwell Automation reports Q4 2024 results and introduces fiscal 2025 guidance
2024-07-18SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.35%Unavailable
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$312
Bull
$388