ROL
Rollins, Inc.$58.17
Sell
Target $47.14
Report: Mar 08, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Personal Products & Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$58.17-19.0%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$47.14
(19% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$66.14
52 Week Low$49.73
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.06M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin52.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin22.7%
LTM EBIT Margin19.4%
LTM Operating Margin19.3%
LTM ROA16.9%
LTM ROE36.9%
LTM ROIC55.3%
LTM ROCE31.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$25.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$26.6B
Shares Outstanding482.73M
Total Debt (MM)$1.04B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$100.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$938.00M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth11.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR11.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR12.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR13.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$64.00
LTM EV/Revenue7.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit13.4x
LTM EV/EBIT36.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA31.2x
LTM P/E48.8x
LTM EV/FCF41.0x
LTM P/FCF39.5x
LTM P/TB21.7x
LTM P/B18.7x
Dividend Yield1.3%
Payout Ratio62.7%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $58.17 versus fair value $47.14 (-19.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Earnings Miss on Operating Margins: A failure to expand margins in FY2026 would invalidate the 'pricing power' bull case and likely lead to a multiple contraction toward the 30x peer median. Bear case centers on Multiple Persistence/Short Squeeze: The market may continue to pay a 'safety premium' for Rollins regardless of fundamentals, leading to a sustained high multiple. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Recession-resilient recurring revenue base with 6.9% organic growth and exceptional 39.9% ROIC; pricing power allows for CPI-plus increases (3-4% annually) to offset inflation.
Bear Case
Valuation at 34x EBITDA is 8% above 5-year averages while operating margins are contracting; unprecedented $3.39B insider sell-off signals a valuation peak.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Earnings Miss on Operating Margins: A failure to expand margins in FY2026 would invalidate the 'pricing power' bull case and likely lead to...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Continued Insider Selling: Further Form 4 filings showing multi-million dollar sales by the CEO or Rollins family will continue to signal th...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Rollins is at a critical juncture where its 34x EBITDA multiple is being tested by 10 basis points of margin compression and a massive insid...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Multiple Persistence/Short Squeeze: The market may continue to pay a 'safety premium' for Rollins regardless of fundamentals, leading to a s...
Concern: Low
M&A Accretion: A large, highly accretive acquisition could re-accelerate growth and justify the current valuation.
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is 'Professional but Misaligned.' While the leadership team is highly capable, the massive $3.39B insider sell-off s...
Recent Activity
2026-02-12SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.53%Rollins, Inc. reported fourth quarter and full year 2025 results showing 24th consecutive year of revenue growth with double-digit revenue, earnings, and cash flow growth.
2025-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.28%Rollins, Inc. reported strong third quarter 2025 financial results with double-digit revenue growth driving 20%+ EPS growth and 30%+ cash flow growth.
2025-07-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.20%Rollins, Inc. reported second quarter 2025 results with 12.1% revenue growth and 10.3% adjusted operating income increase.
2025-04-04Market Movement
-6.60%Market/Sector Move -6.60%
2024-10-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.57%Rollins, Inc. reported third quarter 2024 results with 9% revenue growth despite hurricane disruptions.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$34
Bear
$47
Base
$56
Bull
$58